This is the last day of Extension Week, during which I have estimated the potential lengths of 40 major-league players’ contracts. I have examined offers for:
• upcoming unrestricted free agents
• Pitchers in arbitration
•Arbitration Hitters
• Players prior to arbitration
Although my approach to projecting each extension is the same, the player’s and team’s contexts differ. In the past, teams that do not participate heavily in free agency and have fewer income have found it more important to sign contracts. However, the danger is frequently reduced for high revenue teams that can afford the odd miss as long as they score enough points in other areas.
Generational wealth is at risk for the participants, therefore it may be worth it to lock that in now in exchange for future financial gains.
Even if two of the predicted players have already reached an agreement, not every projected extension benefits both parties. In order to wrap out Extension Week, let us dissect each projection into its component parts and discuss why each one should or should not work.
Tier 1: By the conclusion of the week, obtained a more profitable version of this arrangement
Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia: $136 million over four yearsWheeler holds his own in comps with top earners like Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, and he was rewarded like it with his three-year, $126 million extension.
Brayan Bello, Boston: Six years, $48 million
The Red Sox paid Bello just above Hunter Greene’s six-year, $55 million agreement when I had him last spring.
Tier 2: Get this deal done now
Clay Holmes, New York Yankees: $52 million over four yearsLong a strength for the Yankees, their bullpen has experienced some turnover of late. Locking in Holmes at this rate — which fits just as well for a set-up man as for a closer — would help provide stability.
Pete Alonso, New York Mets: Seven years, $190 million
In addition to giving Alonso a higher salary than players like Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson, this deal does not completely reset the first baseman market, unlike what Prince Fielder accomplished. If the Mets wait until free agency, they might be able to save a few money, but is the danger to the franchise’s future worth it?
Zac Gallen, Arizona: Seven years, $140 million
The Diamondbacks boast one of the top farm systems in the league, have expanded their rotation, and extended Corbin Carroll. It is time to dedicate yourself to Gallen, the rotation’s anchor.
Kyle Tucker, Houston: Eight years, $204 million
Tucker’s all-around skill is worth a fair amount, and securing his contract now gives Houston further assurance in the event that Alex Bregman is unable to sign elsewhere.
Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers: Five years, $82.5 million
Both playing and earning a living as a catcher are difficult tasks. Smith is firmly valued in the very good but not Hall of Fame class of catchers by this.
Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay: Five years, $80 million
Arozarena’s late blooming in the majors is something of a disadvantage because it enables him to earn a substantial salary well in advance of free agency.
Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore: 12 years, $274 million
Henderson would be valued similarly to Bobby Witt Jr. by this agreement, which would demonstrate the Orioles’ dedication to building a long-term team around their youthful core.
George Kirby, Seattle: Seven years, $100 million
A new, nine-figure benchmark would be established for pitchers with less than two years of service time as a result. By securing its young pitching talent, Seattle can increase the length of its competitive window.
Tier 3: Makes more sense for the team
Juan Soto, New York Yankees: 14 years, $540 million
You wait an additional year for free agency when you have the opportunity to break numerous records.
Houston’s Framber Valdez: $105 million over five years Jesus Lúzardo, Miami: $90 million over six years Jutin Steele, Chicago Cubs: $90 million over six years The next logical step for Valdez is to win a Cy Young Award, which would likely boost his chances of landing a big contract. Should they sustain their strong 2023 season, Lúzardo and Steele have no trouble breaking into the nine digits.
Tarik Skubal, Detroit: Five years, $70 million
Many in the sport anticipate that Skubal will have a huge breakthrough this year, which would drastically alter the landscape of his earnings.
Josh Naylor, Cleveland: Five years, $55 million
If Naylor can put together 162 games of what he did for much of last summer, this price will go way up.
Bo Bichette, Toronto: Nine years. $237 million
Unlike catchers, shortstops are paid quite highly in the free market, and two more successful seasons for Bichette might push him closer to the $300 million threshold.
Adley Rutschman, Baltimore: Eight years, $156 million
William Contreras, Milwaukee: Six years, $70 million
Francisco Alvarez, New York Mets: Eight years, $96 million
Just like the three pitchers previously mentioned, these catchers can all see significant increases in value by 2024. I likened Rutschman to Buster Posey, saying that his value skyrockets if he repeats Posey’s feat of winning a World Series and/or MVP in his third season. Contreras and Alvarez have the opportunity to show that their bats have middle-of-the-order potential at a premium position and that their defensive progress from the previous season is sustainable.
Lars Nootbaar, St. Louis: Seven years, $68 million
Another player who could soon make a significant breakthrough and move into a different class of competition is Nootbaar.
CJ Abrams, Washington: Eight years, $96 million
Triston Casas, Boston: Seven years, $77 million
Backing up nice 2023s with better performances in 2024 would push both Abrams and Casas into nine figures.
Tanner Bibee, Cleveland: Six years, $60 million
Bello’s Red Sox extension benefits Bibee, who will likely receive an additional raise over Bello’s $55 million contract.
Tier 4: Makes more sense for the player
Max Fried, Atlanta: Seven years, $195 million
Fried is essentially valued as though a downturn in 2023 never occurred. He would not be worth much more in 2024, not even if he had the anticipated rebound season.
Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis: Four years, $97 million
It is probably not the right moment for St. Louis to commit to running the team well into the future after one of its worst seasons in a decade.
Christian Walker, Arizona: Three years, $48 million
Luis Arráez, Miami: Five years, $85 million
These are two players whose skill sets don’t always get rewarded in free agency. Walker’s age works against him as well.
Riley Greene, Detroit: Eight years, $125 million
This is betting big on Greene fulfilling the star potential he’s shown so far.
Tier 5: Both sides should hold off
Corbin Burnes, Baltimore: Eight years, $260 million
Burnes is too close to free agency and Baltimore can save a lot more by extending younger players for the two sides to waste much energy on this right now.
Shane Bieber, Cleveland: Five years, $95 million
In contrast to Fried, Bieber’s earning potential would be significantly altered by a strong rebound season.
Alex Bregman, Houston: Seven years, $210 million
Willy Adames, Milwaukee: Six years, $132 million
Ha-Seong Kim, San Diego: Four years, $80 million
Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees: Four years, $68 million
It usually makes the most sense to wait it out and see what else is available when you are a year away from free agency.
Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox: Seven years, $140 million
I think this is generally a player-friendly deal for Cease, but the uncertainty about the direction of the White Sox — he’s in all those trade rumors for a reason — should limit his interest in a long-term pact on the South Side.
Logan Gilbert, Seattle: Seven years, $115 million
It makes sense for all parties to wait a full season to see if Gilbert advances to the top of the rotation.
Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Toronto: Seven years, $185 million
Bichette should be the Blue Jays’ first priority, and a stronger season in 2024 will allow Guerrero to raise his potential back to $200 million.
Jonah Heim, Texas: Four years, $32 million
Another All-Star campaign would help Heim a lot here, and Texas can afford to go year-to-year with a catcher who won’t hit free agency until his 30s.
Anthony Volpe, New York Yankees: Nine years, $104 million
And the Yankees can afford to get a better grasp on how good Volpe can be before going to nine figures with him off a decent rookie season.
(Top photo of Kyle Tucker: Bob Levey / Getty Images)
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