Predicting the Future: Keith Law’s Top 30 Prospects for MLB Draft 2024

 

The 2024 draft class is not quite as strong as the one from last year; it lacks both the depth of high school skill overall and

 

The 2024 draft class is not quite as strong as the one from last year; it lacks both the depth of high school skill overall and middle-of-the-field batters. As of right now, it appears that the first round will be heavily weighted toward colleges, with at least the first seven to eight picks and possibly as many as the first ten coming from the college rankings. Only a few high school pitchers who perform well in the early going will likely be selected in the first round or receive bonuses akin to those.

Here is my current rating of the top 30 players in the draft, which includes enough players for the first round itself. I have included brief scouting reports on each player as well as a list of some other names that were at least given some thought but did not make the cut. This list will grow to 50 in April, then to 100 in early May, most likely. All statistics are current as of Sunday, March 3 games.

(Note: Scouting grades are on a traditional 20-80 scale.)

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Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

Condon changed his hand position somewhat from the previous summer and has since blossomed in the spring, hitting.568/.636/1.273 through the third weekend of play. In addition, he is distinguishing himself from the class’s first base-only players by playing at least a competent third base, though it is more likely that he will wind up as a strong defender in right or left. Last week against Michigan State, he hit three home runs in four swings: one off the bat, dead center off the batter’s eye, one to the left, and one to the right of opposite field. He bats quickly, has excellent zone awareness, and incredibly strong hands. He is going to finish first in this mixed class if he continues to match up well against SEC pitching, which includes improved velocity.

Position Player

4-Year College

3B

OF

Scouting Report

Bats: L, Throws: L

Although Caglianone is a two-way player, his pro future lies with the stick because of its 80 raw power and decent athleticism, which will at least allow him to start as a strong defender. In his college career, he has been more of a power hitter than a hitter; last year, he struck out more than he walked, but that should change a little bit when he is concentrating on one thing instead of trying to pitch and bat. He is a strong pitcher who this year threw 94–95 mph predominantly fastballs with an occasional powerful slider, but he has already had Tommy John surgery in high school, so he has limitations. Due to an unspecified injury, he also missed the opening weekend. Additionally, while he was

Position Player

Pitcher

4-Year College

1B

LHP

Scouting Report

Bats: L, Throws: R

Bazzana was born in and grew up in Australia, debuted in the Australian Baseball League at age 15, and led the collegiate summer league West Coast League in average and slugging as an 18-year-old. He’s now hitting .432/.583/1.023 in the early going for the Oregon State Beavers — and that includes the Hagen Smith Game. He’s very strong, probably from his time wrestling crocodiles, so even though his swing is pretty short, he hits the ball very hard and can show 55-60 power. I don’t think there’s projection here and he’s second base-only, but the hit/power tools are enough to make him an above-average regular.

Position Player

4-Year College

2B

Scouting Report

Bats: L, Throws: R

Wetherholt, a high-contact, low-walk hitter who smashes the ball reasonably hard and provides a better floor than nearly everyone else in the draft, has been an outstanding player for the Mountaineers for the last two seasons. He is a decent hitter with considerable power who may be an everyday starter at second base. His hamstring issue from last summer kept him out of action for a while, and now it is back. He is already missed two weekend series and might miss more. Considering that he is a tiny infielder who is rated at 5-foot-10 and possibly shorter, it has called into question his durability, which he already faced.

Position Player

4-Year College

2B

3B

Scouting Report

Bats: L, Throws: L

Scouts praised Smith’s performance against Oregon State in Week 2, citing his 17 strikeouts in six innings as the most dominant amateur pitcher they had ever seen. Over the past two years, he has increased his speed; he is currently approaching 100 mph and sitting at 95–97 mph, with a wipeout slider at 85–88 mph that has a ton of horizontal break. Although I am not a fan of the mechanics and he underwent Tommy John surgery when he was sixteen, this is some prime David Price material. His lineup gave Oregon State the appearance of Pencil State.

Scouting Report

Bats: L, Throws: L

Kurtz walks a ton, 63 times in 56 games last year and 14 times in 11 games so far this spring, with some power, although 29 of his career 41 homers have come at Wake’s homer-friendly ballpark. The horror here is that he’s limited to first base, so he has to either show more raw power or prove that the on-base skills aren’t just a function of waiting out mediocre college pitching.

Position Player

4-Year College

1B

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

Burns moved this year from Tennessee to Wake Forest after being placed in the bullpen by the Vols in 2023. Being the best right-handed pitcher in the class, the transfer was the right choice for him. This year, he has improved significantly. He is hitting 97–99 mph, even approaching 101, and he has a wipeout slider. He can carry the fastball up in the zone and also drive it down by maintaining control of his delivery. Though they are not hitting him yet, he does not have much of a pitch to attack lefties, so his future employers may need to take that into consideration.

Scouting Report

Bats: B, Throws: R

Montgomery transferred from Stanford to College Station this year and is off to a big start for the Aggies, showing off his bat speed and plus raw power along with one of the best outfield arms in the class. He’s been a two-way player before but he’s nowhere near the same kind of prospect on the mound, where he has arm strength but neither command nor feel. He hit very well in the Cape Cod League but has shown some propensity to swing and miss, with a real vulnerability to changeups. He’s riskier than the hitters above him but has more upside than the bats after Condon and Caglianone.

Position Player

Pitcher

4-Year College

OF

RHP

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

It is interesting that Brecht, who gave up football a year ago to concentrate on baseball, is built like a huge wide receiver and can reach speeds of up to 100 mph with a plus slider. Despite the velocity, he is incredibly athletic and does not put much effort into his delivery. It is like taking a high school arm and putting it in a college pitcher’s body because he is also significantly less skilled as a pitcher than the people ahead of him, both in terms of repertoire and feel for the strike zone.

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

Tommy Tanks made waves as a freshman in 2022 at North Carolina State, when he hit 27 home runs, breaking the NCAA record. For his second year, Tanks transferred to LSU, where he hit almost as well in a more competitive conference. Naturally gifted with raw power, he has had solid batted-ball performance since high school. However, during his collegiate career, he has been an unruly hitter who swings at far too many pitches and has low walk and chase rates. He can play first base if necessary, but he is a good third baseman. It is a gamble on strength and the ability of a player development staff to force him to hit singles.

Position Player

4-Year College

3B

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

Bonemer could be the first Michigan high schooler to go in the first round since Nick Plummer in 2015 and just the second in the last 25 years. He’s very strong and projects to plus power, more likely at third base than shortstop, with enough arm for the hot corner. Bonemer has changed his setup and swing numerous times, sometimes working with a deep load and a dead-hand start, sometimes setting up extremely wide with no stride or weight transfer, and sometimes showing a quieter approach that lets him rotate his hips more and drive the ball out to left center. He has the bat speed and strength to get to power without trying too hard to get a certain launch angle or just pull everything, giving him some upside potential for a team that can get him to a consistent setup and swing.

Position Player

High School

SS

3B

Scouting Report

Bats: L, Throws: L

Caldwell is an easy plus runner who plays decent center field and has the potential to develop into a 55–60 defender there. He has a compact, rapid swing that is short to the ball but produces a ton of line drives. You might wonder why Caldwell is not in the top 10. Given his height of 5 feet 5 1/2 inches, it will require a general manager or scouting director with a high level of job security to select a player this short with their first pick. Even with small position players (Jose Altuve, Corbin Carroll, Alex Bregman) dominating in the major leagues and appearing all over prospect lists, there is still a bias in the industry against them. When Caldwell competed against junior college opponents in the January Future Stars event, which

Position Player

High School

OF

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

Yesavage works with a no-windup delivery and sits 94-95 with an above-average cutter and average change, with his stuff playing up because he drives the ball down in the zone, getting some of the highest induced vertical break on his fastball of anyone in the draft. He’s been dominant this year through three starts, striking out 44 percent of hitters he’s faced. He doesn’t use the changeup much to his glove side, though, and better left-handed hitters might give him trouble or force him to rely more on the cutter.

Scouting Report

Bats: L, Throws: R

Morlando gets to it despite adopting an excessively wide stance that prevents him from rotating his hips much to utilize his legs for more juice. He demonstrates plus power with extremely strong hands and outstanding bat speed. Because of his below-average arm, he can only play left field, where, as a 45 runner, he should be an acceptable defender. Because he will be 19 on draft day, he will be outclassed by some draft models. He will receive a smaller setup from some player development personnel so he can utilize his lower half and potentially turn that plus power grade into a 70.

Position Player

High School

OF

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

Culpepper moved from third to short this year for the Wildcats, and while he’s probably going to go back to third or move to second in pro ball, he’s definitely an infielder and his high-contact approach gives him a solid floor. He has a great, simple swing with a short path to the ball and plenty of strength for hard contact, and he’s an excellent fastball hitter, even against decent velocity.

Position Player

4-Year College

SS

3B

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

Honeycutt is a plus-plus defender in center whose profile as a hitter is a wide-open question. As a freshman, he hit 25 homers for the Tar Heels, but struck out 90 times in 64 games (29.7 percent of his PA), while as a sophomore he cut the strikeout rate to 20.4 percent but hit just 12 homers. There’s still a lot of swing and miss here, as his swing can get very uphill, and he’ll chase breaking stuff down and away while also struggling with fastballs up in the zone. He’s a plus runner and does have the kind of power to hit 20+ homers in the majors if he hits enough to get to it. Everybody compares him to Drew Stubbs, who was a top-10 pick in 2006 and posted 8 WAR in his major-league career. You have to hope he’s better than that if you’re taking him in the top 20.

Position Player

4-Year College

OF

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

This year, King moved from Division II Wingate to Wake after making a lot of noise in 16 games between the Cape Cod League and Team USA last summer (.424/.479/.542). He went from the dirt to center field for the Deacons after transferring. His lengthy swing has not given him any problems against superior pitching thus far, but he is more of a free swinger who hardly ever walks or strikes out at every stop.

Position Player

4-Year College

2B

OF

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

Already possessing a big-league fastball with ride and great vertical movement, Hess can reach 93–98 mph. He throws it for strikes in combination with a power curveball that has a late, sharp break downward and at least a 55 cutter/slider. After using a straight changeup in his final three starts of the previous season, he has abandoned it this year in favor of two breaking pitches, at least without a platoon split. After tossing 44 2/3 innings in 2022, he had a forearm strain that kept him out of the game for half of the spring and the entire summer. He needs to prove he can play for the entire season.

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

In a previous era, when teams prioritized developing raw talent above all else, Griffin easily would have been selected in the top ten. Big in stature, he possesses the raw power and running ability to play any position in the outfield thanks to his excellent arm. His first move back more behind his body gives him a longer swing, but once he gets the bat moving, it is a typical swing that should result in plenty of line drives. Austin Riley now leads all players picked and signed out of Mississippi high schools in WAR, so his past performance against the state’s high school batters will be a factor, but of the first-round high school bats, he likely has the most promise.

Position Player

High School

OF

Scouting Report

Bats: L, Throws: R

If a team believes Rainer can hit, he might be selected in the top 15 because of his raw power and defensive prowess. Rainer has demonstrated enough to project to stay at shortstop and maybe become a plus defender there. Despite having bat speed, he regularly loses balance when making contact, which causes him to make less consistent contact and swing and miss more often in showcases than other possible first-round picks. Similarities can be found with Brice Turang, a left-handed hitter from a California high school who was selected 21st overall in 2018.

Position Player

High School

SS

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

Despite having a stiff, robotic delivery, Beam delivers a lot of strikes, operating at 92–95 mph with a plus-flashing changeup and a fringy curveball. He is in the zone a lot this year, walking just one batter through three starts, which is partly due to the fact that his fastball’s secondary features are not excellent and his results are above the pure stuff. In his first two years in Knoxville, he walked 6.6 percent of batters.

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

Lomavita is a catcher who intends to stay behind the plate and a high-contact hitter. His straightforward, no-stride style of play makes plenty of balls in play but prevents him from using his legs or hip rotation to generate force. Even with that excessively aggressive plan, he has still hit for average and kept his strikeout rate to just 13 percent since the beginning of his 2023 spring. He swings at everything, averaging just 3.3 pitches per PA this year with a chase rate of 33 percent, with 3.4 P/PA and a 40 percent chase rate on the Cape last summer.

Position Player

4-Year College

C

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

This year, Green joined the Ramblin Wreck as their starting shortstop after transferring from North Carolina State. He got out to a great start, hitting.353/.500/.765, with more walks than strikeouts. He was shifted to second base by the Wolfpack last spring because of his inconsistent defense at shortstop, but he has improved during the first two weeks in terms of both throwing and fielding at shortstop. Though an excellent athlete, he will need to demonstrate that he can hit superior pitching in ACC competition.

Position Player

4-Year College

SS

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

Silva is a draft-eligible sophomore, turning 21 the week of the draft, with a high floor due to his probability to stay at shortstop and enough bat speed to put the ball in play at high rates even against better stuff. He has soft hands and a 55 arm, projecting to stay at short and maybe end up a 55 defender there, while at the plate he’s got a simple swing but puts the ball on the ground too often. It’s a utility infielder floor, with perhaps some ceiling beyond a regular if he can get the ball in the air more often.

Position Player

4-Year College

SS

Scouting Report

Bats: L, Throws: R

Moore’s on the young side for the college class, turning 21 two weeks after the draft, and he’s shown more than enough power to profile as a top-20 pick if you think he can stick behind the plate. He starts his setup in the back of the box like he’s standing around waiting for the bus, tapping his front foot nervously before striding very late, which may be why he struggles with pitch recognition. He crushes fastballs but has had trouble with anything with a wrinkle, and he’ll chase velocity above the zone. There’s real upside in a catcher with left-handed power, while he needs work with his glove and will probably never be more than average at controlling the running game.

Position Player

4-Year College

C

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

Schmidt is a tall, projectable prep pitcher who has demonstrated ride and run ability up to 96 mph. He currently possesses a quality curveball in the form of an 11/5 hammer with spin rates of about 3,000 rpm. He approaches the plate with a great stride, taking as much time as humanly possible to let his lower body create arm speed. Although he does not use it much, he has a changeup that is good enough to start in professional ball. Although he has committed to LSU and is probably going to want a large bonus, this is also the kind of high school pitcher you want to overpay for.

Scouting Report

Bats: L, Throws: L

Hartle is a dominant left-hander that attacks batters with five pitches. This year, he has used a cutter more frequently than he did last spring, shifting his focus from his fastball, which reaches 90 to 92 mph, to his offspeed stuff. He begins on the first-base side of the rubber and cuts himself slightly during the landing; as a result, he crosses his body and finds it difficult to locate his glove side. Despite having a low walk rate of 5.5 percent since the beginning of his sophomore year, he tosses a lot of strikes.

Scouting Report

Bats: L, Throws: L

After suffering an elbow fracture from a pitch last spring, Santucci was only able to play 29 innings before his season ended. However, he returned this spring and immediately became a starter for the Blue Devils, throwing roughly 60% sliders and 40% fastballs. With an above-average vertical break and run, the fastball has a velocity of 93–96 mph, and the slider has a conventional tilt. Hitters just do not hit the slider at all; according to Synergy Sports statistics, 51% of batters strikeout on the pitch in the spring of last year and 66% of batters whiff so far this year. Even against right-handers, he uses a slider or fastball instead of his changeup this year. His draft standing can depend more on his medicals than on his qualifications or performance.

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

Sirota had 18 homers and 19 steals last spring for Northeastern and then raked in the Cape Cod League, but more swing and miss in the first three weeks this spring has some national scouts delaying going to see him in the hopes that he’ll get back to his 2023 level of production. It’s an ugly swing salvaged by superlative hand speed, and he does have plenty of loft in the finish to consistently hit the ball in the air. He won’t face much quality pitching in the Coastal Athletic Association (CAA), however, so he has to mash to stay in the top half of the round.

Position Player

4-Year College

OF

Scouting Report

Bats: L, Throws: R

Despite his advertised stature of 6-1, 184, Benge is a slap hitter who frequently puts the ball in play without using much force. He dives over his front side. Though he controls the zone and appears to be able to identify different pitch types, I believe that many teams will see potential here if they can convince him to stay back and try to drive the ball. He is a right fielder who can occasionally relieve from the mound with an effortless plus arm that reaches 92–94 mph.

Position Player

Pitcher

4-Year College

OF

RHP

Others of note

Dakota Jordan, OF, Mississippi State
Thatcher Hurd, RHP, LSU
Gage Jump, LHP, LSU
Ryan Forcucci, RHP, UC San Diego
Christian Moore, SS, Tennessee
Blake Burke, 1B, Tennessee
Michael Massey, RHP, Wake Forest
Carson DeMartini, 3B, Virginia Tech
Connor Gatwood, RHP, Baker (Mobile, AL) HS
Tegan Kuhns, RHP, Chambersburg Area (PA) HS


Additional 2024 MLB Draft coverage

go-deeper

(Top photo art by Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos from left to right: Jac Caglianone / Phelan M. Ebenhack / Associated Press; Charlie Condon / Stew Milne / Associated Press; Travis Bazzana / John Korduner / Icon Sportswire / Getty Images)

 

middle-of-the-field batters. As of right now, it appears that the first round will be heavily weighted toward colleges, with at least the first seven to eight picks and possibly as many as the first ten coming from the college rankings. Only a few high school pitchers who perform well in the early going will likely be selected in the first round or receive bonuses akin to those.

Here is my current rating of the top 30 players in the draft, which includes enough players for the first round itself. I have included brief scouting reports on each player as well as a list of some other names that were at least given some thought but did not make the cut. This list will grow to 50 in April, then to 100 in early May, most likely. All statistics are current as of Sunday, March 3 games.

(Note: Scouting grades are on a traditional 20-80 scale.)

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Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

Condon changed his hand position somewhat from the previous summer and has since blossomed in the spring, hitting.568/.636/1.273 through the third weekend of play. In addition, he is distinguishing himself from the class’s first base-only players by playing at least a competent third base, though it is more likely that he will wind up as a strong defender in right or left. Last week against Michigan State, he hit three home runs in four swings: one off the bat, dead center off the batter’s eye, one to the left, and one to the right of opposite field. He bats quickly, has excellent zone awareness, and incredibly strong hands. He is going to finish first in this mixed class if he continues to match up well against SEC pitching, which includes improved velocity.

Position Player

4-Year College

3B

OF

Scouting Report

Bats: L, Throws: L

Although Caglianone is a two-way player, his pro future lies with the stick because of its 80 raw power and decent athleticism, which will at least allow him to start as a strong defender. In his college career, he has been more of a power hitter than a hitter; last year, he struck out more than he walked, but that should change a little bit when he is concentrating on one thing instead of trying to pitch and bat. He is a strong pitcher who this year threw 94–95 mph predominantly fastballs with an occasional powerful slider, but he has already had Tommy John surgery in high school, so he has limitations. Due to an unspecified injury, he also missed the opening weekend. Additionally, while he was

Position Player

Pitcher

4-Year College

1B

LHP

Scouting Report

Bats: L, Throws: R

Bazzana was born in and grew up in Australia, debuted in the Australian Baseball League at age 15, and led the collegiate summer league West Coast League in average and slugging as an 18-year-old. He’s now hitting .432/.583/1.023 in the early going for the Oregon State Beavers — and that includes the Hagen Smith Game. He’s very strong, probably from his time wrestling crocodiles, so even though his swing is pretty short, he hits the ball very hard and can show 55-60 power. I don’t think there’s projection here and he’s second base-only, but the hit/power tools are enough to make him an above-average regular.

Position Player

4-Year College

2B

Scouting Report

Bats: L, Throws: R

Wetherholt, a high-contact, low-walk hitter who smashes the ball reasonably hard and provides a better floor than nearly everyone else in the draft, has been an outstanding player for the Mountaineers for the last two seasons. He is a decent hitter with considerable power who may be an everyday starter at second base. His hamstring issue from last summer kept him out of action for a while, and now it is back. He is already missed two weekend series and might miss more. Considering that he is a tiny infielder who is rated at 5-foot-10 and possibly shorter, it has called into question his durability, which he already faced.

Position Player

4-Year College

2B

3B

Scouting Report

Bats: L, Throws: L

Scouts praised Smith’s performance against Oregon State in Week 2, citing his 17 strikeouts in six innings as the most dominant amateur pitcher they had ever seen. Over the past two years, he has increased his speed; he is currently approaching 100 mph and sitting at 95–97 mph, with a wipeout slider at 85–88 mph that has a ton of horizontal break. Although I am not a fan of the mechanics and he underwent Tommy John surgery when he was sixteen, this is some prime David Price material. His lineup gave Oregon State the appearance of Pencil State.

Scouting Report

Bats: L, Throws: L

Kurtz walks a ton, 63 times in 56 games last year and 14 times in 11 games so far this spring, with some power, although 29 of his career 41 homers have come at Wake’s homer-friendly ballpark. The horror here is that he’s limited to first base, so he has to either show more raw power or prove that the on-base skills aren’t just a function of waiting out mediocre college pitching.

Position Player

4-Year College

1B

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

Burns moved this year from Tennessee to Wake Forest after being placed in the bullpen by the Vols in 2023. Being the best right-handed pitcher in the class, the transfer was the right choice for him. This year, he has improved significantly. He is hitting 97–99 mph, even approaching 101, and he has a wipeout slider. He can carry the fastball up in the zone and also drive it down by maintaining control of his delivery. Though they are not hitting him yet, he does not have much of a pitch to attack lefties, so his future employers may need to take that into consideration.

Scouting Report

Bats: B, Throws: R

Montgomery transferred from Stanford to College Station this year and is off to a big start for the Aggies, showing off his bat speed and plus raw power along with one of the best outfield arms in the class. He’s been a two-way player before but he’s nowhere near the same kind of prospect on the mound, where he has arm strength but neither command nor feel. He hit very well in the Cape Cod League but has shown some propensity to swing and miss, with a real vulnerability to changeups. He’s riskier than the hitters above him but has more upside than the bats after Condon and Caglianone.

Position Player

Pitcher

4-Year College

OF

RHP

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

It is interesting that Brecht, who gave up football a year ago to concentrate on baseball, is built like a huge wide receiver and can reach speeds of up to 100 mph with a plus slider. Despite the velocity, he is incredibly athletic and does not put much effort into his delivery. It is like taking a high school arm and putting it in a college pitcher’s body because he is also significantly less skilled as a pitcher than the people ahead of him, both in terms of repertoire and feel for the strike zone.

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

Tommy Tanks made waves as a freshman in 2022 at North Carolina State, when he hit 27 home runs, breaking the NCAA record. For his second year, Tanks transferred to LSU, where he hit almost as well in a more competitive conference. Naturally gifted with raw power, he has had solid batted-ball performance since high school. However, during his collegiate career, he has been an unruly hitter who swings at far too many pitches and has low walk and chase rates. He can play first base if necessary, but he is a good third baseman. It is a gamble on strength and the ability of a player development staff to force him to hit singles.

Position Player

4-Year College

3B

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

Bonemer could be the first Michigan high schooler to go in the first round since Nick Plummer in 2015 and just the second in the last 25 years. He’s very strong and projects to plus power, more likely at third base than shortstop, with enough arm for the hot corner. Bonemer has changed his setup and swing numerous times, sometimes working with a deep load and a dead-hand start, sometimes setting up extremely wide with no stride or weight transfer, and sometimes showing a quieter approach that lets him rotate his hips more and drive the ball out to left center. He has the bat speed and strength to get to power without trying too hard to get a certain launch angle or just pull everything, giving him some upside potential for a team that can get him to a consistent setup and swing.

Position Player

High School

SS

3B

Scouting Report

Bats: L, Throws: L

Caldwell is an easy plus runner who plays decent center field and has the potential to develop into a 55–60 defender there. He has a compact, rapid swing that is short to the ball but produces a ton of line drives. You might wonder why Caldwell is not in the top 10. Given his height of 5 feet 5 1/2 inches, it will require a general manager or scouting director with a high level of job security to select a player this short with their first pick. Even with small position players (Jose Altuve, Corbin Carroll, Alex Bregman) dominating in the major leagues and appearing all over prospect lists, there is still a bias in the industry against them. When Caldwell competed against junior college opponents in the January Future Stars event, which

Position Player

High School

OF

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

Yesavage works with a no-windup delivery and sits 94-95 with an above-average cutter and average change, with his stuff playing up because he drives the ball down in the zone, getting some of the highest induced vertical break on his fastball of anyone in the draft. He’s been dominant this year through three starts, striking out 44 percent of hitters he’s faced. He doesn’t use the changeup much to his glove side, though, and better left-handed hitters might give him trouble or force him to rely more on the cutter.

Scouting Report

Bats: L, Throws: R

Morlando gets to it despite adopting an excessively wide stance that prevents him from rotating his hips much to utilize his legs for more juice. He demonstrates plus power with extremely strong hands and outstanding bat speed. Because of his below-average arm, he can only play left field, where, as a 45 runner, he should be an acceptable defender. Because he will be 19 on draft day, he will be outclassed by some draft models. He will receive a smaller setup from some player development personnel so he can utilize his lower half and potentially turn that plus power grade into a 70.

Position Player

High School

OF

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

Culpepper moved from third to short this year for the Wildcats, and while he’s probably going to go back to third or move to second in pro ball, he’s definitely an infielder and his high-contact approach gives him a solid floor. He has a great, simple swing with a short path to the ball and plenty of strength for hard contact, and he’s an excellent fastball hitter, even against decent velocity.

Position Player

4-Year College

SS

3B

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

Honeycutt is a plus-plus defender in center whose profile as a hitter is a wide-open question. As a freshman, he hit 25 homers for the Tar Heels, but struck out 90 times in 64 games (29.7 percent of his PA), while as a sophomore he cut the strikeout rate to 20.4 percent but hit just 12 homers. There’s still a lot of swing and miss here, as his swing can get very uphill, and he’ll chase breaking stuff down and away while also struggling with fastballs up in the zone. He’s a plus runner and does have the kind of power to hit 20+ homers in the majors if he hits enough to get to it. Everybody compares him to Drew Stubbs, who was a top-10 pick in 2006 and posted 8 WAR in his major-league career. You have to hope he’s better than that if you’re taking him in the top 20.

Position Player

4-Year College

OF

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

This year, King moved from Division II Wingate to Wake after making a lot of noise in 16 games between the Cape Cod League and Team USA last summer (.424/.479/.542). He went from the dirt to center field for the Deacons after transferring. His lengthy swing has not given him any problems against superior pitching thus far, but he is more of a free swinger who hardly ever walks or strikes out at every stop.

Position Player

4-Year College

2B

OF

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

Already possessing a big-league fastball with ride and great vertical movement, Hess can reach 93–98 mph. He throws it for strikes in combination with a power curveball that has a late, sharp break downward and at least a 55 cutter/slider. After using a straight changeup in his final three starts of the previous season, he has abandoned it this year in favor of two breaking pitches, at least without a platoon split. After tossing 44 2/3 innings in 2022, he had a forearm strain that kept him out of the game for half of the spring and the entire summer. He needs to prove he can play for the entire season.

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

In a previous era, when teams prioritized developing raw talent above all else, Griffin easily would have been selected in the top ten. Big in stature, he possesses the raw power and running ability to play any position in the outfield thanks to his excellent arm. His first move back more behind his body gives him a longer swing, but once he gets the bat moving, it is a typical swing that should result in plenty of line drives. Austin Riley now leads all players picked and signed out of Mississippi high schools in WAR, so his past performance against the state’s high school batters will be a factor, but of the first-round high school bats, he likely has the most promise.

Position Player

High School

OF

Scouting Report

Bats: L, Throws: R

If a team believes Rainer can hit, he might be selected in the top 15 because of his raw power and defensive prowess. Rainer has demonstrated enough to project to stay at shortstop and maybe become a plus defender there. Despite having bat speed, he regularly loses balance when making contact, which causes him to make less consistent contact and swing and miss more often in showcases than other possible first-round picks. Similarities can be found with Brice Turang, a left-handed hitter from a California high school who was selected 21st overall in 2018.

Position Player

High School

SS

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

Despite having a stiff, robotic delivery, Beam delivers a lot of strikes, operating at 92–95 mph with a plus-flashing changeup and a fringy curveball. He is in the zone a lot this year, walking just one batter through three starts, which is partly due to the fact that his fastball’s secondary features are not excellent and his results are above the pure stuff. In his first two years in Knoxville, he walked 6.6 percent of batters.

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

Lomavita is a catcher who intends to stay behind the plate and a high-contact hitter. His straightforward, no-stride style of play makes plenty of balls in play but prevents him from using his legs or hip rotation to generate force. Even with that excessively aggressive plan, he has still hit for average and kept his strikeout rate to just 13 percent since the beginning of his 2023 spring. He swings at everything, averaging just 3.3 pitches per PA this year with a chase rate of 33 percent, with 3.4 P/PA and a 40 percent chase rate on the Cape last summer.

Position Player

4-Year College

C

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

This year, Green joined the Ramblin Wreck as their starting shortstop after transferring from North Carolina State. He got out to a great start, hitting.353/.500/.765, with more walks than strikeouts. He was shifted to second base by the Wolfpack last spring because of his inconsistent defense at shortstop, but he has improved during the first two weeks in terms of both throwing and fielding at shortstop. Though an excellent athlete, he will need to demonstrate that he can hit superior pitching in ACC competition.

Position Player

4-Year College

SS

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

Silva is a draft-eligible sophomore, turning 21 the week of the draft, with a high floor due to his probability to stay at shortstop and enough bat speed to put the ball in play at high rates even against better stuff. He has soft hands and a 55 arm, projecting to stay at short and maybe end up a 55 defender there, while at the plate he’s got a simple swing but puts the ball on the ground too often. It’s a utility infielder floor, with perhaps some ceiling beyond a regular if he can get the ball in the air more often.

Position Player

4-Year College

SS

Scouting Report

Bats: L, Throws: R

Moore’s on the young side for the college class, turning 21 two weeks after the draft, and he’s shown more than enough power to profile as a top-20 pick if you think he can stick behind the plate. He starts his setup in the back of the box like he’s standing around waiting for the bus, tapping his front foot nervously before striding very late, which may be why he struggles with pitch recognition. He crushes fastballs but has had trouble with anything with a wrinkle, and he’ll chase velocity above the zone. There’s real upside in a catcher with left-handed power, while he needs work with his glove and will probably never be more than average at controlling the running game.

Position Player

4-Year College

C

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

Schmidt is a tall, projectable prep pitcher who has demonstrated ride and run ability up to 96 mph. He currently possesses a quality curveball in the form of an 11/5 hammer with spin rates of about 3,000 rpm. He approaches the plate with a great stride, taking as much time as humanly possible to let his lower body create arm speed. Although he does not use it much, he has a changeup that is good enough to start in professional ball. Although he has committed to LSU and is probably going to want a large bonus, this is also the kind of high school pitcher you want to overpay for.

Scouting Report

Bats: L, Throws: L

Hartle is a dominant left-hander that attacks batters with five pitches. This year, he has used a cutter more frequently than he did last spring, shifting his focus from his fastball, which reaches 90 to 92 mph, to his offspeed stuff. He begins on the first-base side of the rubber and cuts himself slightly during the landing; as a result, he crosses his body and finds it difficult to locate his glove side. Despite having a low walk rate of 5.5 percent since the beginning of his sophomore year, he tosses a lot of strikes.

Scouting Report

Bats: L, Throws: L

After suffering an elbow fracture from a pitch last spring, Santucci was only able to play 29 innings before his season ended. However, he returned this spring and immediately became a starter for the Blue Devils, throwing roughly 60% sliders and 40% fastballs. With an above-average vertical break and run, the fastball has a velocity of 93–96 mph, and the slider has a conventional tilt. Hitters just do not hit the slider at all; according to Synergy Sports statistics, 51% of batters strikeout on the pitch in the spring of last year and 66% of batters whiff so far this year. Even against right-handers, he uses a slider or fastball instead of his changeup this year. His draft standing can depend more on his medicals than on his qualifications or performance.

Scouting Report

Bats: R, Throws: R

Sirota had 18 homers and 19 steals last spring for Northeastern and then raked in the Cape Cod League, but more swing and miss in the first three weeks this spring has some national scouts delaying going to see him in the hopes that he’ll get back to his 2023 level of production. It’s an ugly swing salvaged by superlative hand speed, and he does have plenty of loft in the finish to consistently hit the ball in the air. He won’t face much quality pitching in the Coastal Athletic Association (CAA), however, so he has to mash to stay in the top half of the round.

Position Player

4-Year College

OF

Scouting Report

Bats: L, Throws: R

Despite his advertised stature of 6-1, 184, Benge is a slap hitter who frequently puts the ball in play without using much force. He dives over his front side. Though he controls the zone and appears to be able to identify different pitch types, I believe that many teams will see potential here if they can convince him to stay back and try to drive the ball. He is a right fielder who can occasionally relieve from the mound with an effortless plus arm that reaches 92–94 mph.

Position Player

Pitcher

4-Year College

OF

RHP

Others of note

Dakota Jordan, OF, Mississippi State
Thatcher Hurd, RHP, LSU
Gage Jump, LHP, LSU
Ryan Forcucci, RHP, UC San Diego
Christian Moore, SS, Tennessee
Blake Burke, 1B, Tennessee
Michael Massey, RHP, Wake Forest
Carson DeMartini, 3B, Virginia Tech
Connor Gatwood, RHP, Baker (Mobile, AL) HS
Tegan Kuhns, RHP, Chambersburg Area (PA) HS


Additional 2024 MLB Draft coverage

go-deeper

(Top photo art by Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos from left to right: Jac Caglianone / Phelan M. Ebenhack / Associated Press; Charlie Condon / Stew Milne / Associated Press; Travis Bazzana / John Korduner / Icon Sportswire / Getty Images)

 

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