NHL Predictions 5.0: Navigating the Chaos of Cup Contenders and the Coaching Carousel….

The Philadelphia Flyers’ chances of making the playoffs were not anticipated by our team. They are now without a doubt favorites.

However, that does not imply that we are infallible. The poll from last month accurately predicted that Lane Lambert would be the next coach to be sacked. Who is this month’s top person on that list?

The Athletic polled staff members this week using the same set of prediction questions we used to poll them during the preseason and each subsequent month. With insight, criticism, and trolling from national journalists Sean Gentille and Hailey Salvian, statistics guru Shayna Goldman, and NHL betting specialist Jesse Granger, here is how our expectations for 2023–2024 have changed..

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Who will win the Stanley Cup?

Goldman: It’s obvious that the Oilers’ winning streak has given them some confidence in their prospects. It’s remarkable to observe how, over the past month, everyone has been leaning more toward Dallas and Edmonton than Colorado.

Granger: The Canucks are playing at a league-best level right now.Almost no votes here despite having a 727 point percentage and a plus-61 goal difference (Florida is the next closest at plus-43). I can see why some might be skeptical of a club that hasn’t proven it can win in the postseason, but Vancouver has everything needed for a successful run. At this point, the exceptional goaltending and balanced scoring have persisted long enough to allay most worries.

Gentille: Since October, I’ve been invested in the Stars, and I have no intention of changing my mind. Even without Jake Oettinger playing at his peak, they are among the league’s finest five-on-five teams and are in the top five in terms of goal difference and points %.

Salvian:Sean and I both agree on this. The Stars have been in the top half of the league all season and are currently ranked fourth. If they add more defensive depth, they could improve even further by the deadline. Nothing is urging me to give up on the Stars right now, and I haven’t modified my selection in the last five months.

Who will be the runners-up?

Goldman: It appears like everyone agrees that the Eastern Conference squad will not win the championship. Additionally, the Hurricanes have received a lot more attention recently as a result of their starting goaltender stabilizing. But when it comes to the Panthers, I’m sticking to my guns. I was surprised to see a slight decline in voting.

Salvian:  This season, Sebastian Aho has excelled. When healthy, Andrei Svechnikov can score one point a game, while Teuvo Teravainen is having a better season than the one before. The Canes’ goal scoring issues have been talked about for a while, even though seven players have scored 10 or more goals in 52 games. I believe Carolina has a shot to win this year if they can at least advance to the Cup Final.

Granger:When your backup goalie is Igor Shesterkin, you’re doing quite well. Jonathan Quick’s return has been entertaining to watch, and the Rangers could be very difficult to beat if Shesterkin can find his groove.When your backup goalie is Igor Shesterkin, you’re doing quite well. Watching Jonathan Quick’s comeback has been entertaining, and the Rangers could be very difficult to beat if Shesterkin finds his stride.

Gentille: I’m with Hailey on this one, as tempting as the Panthers have become.

Who will finish in last place?

Granger: Since our last vote, the Blackhawks have risen to a 7-1 record, regaining their position in the race. The Sharks, meanwhile, have won five straight games, including victories against the Flames, Kings, Rangers, and Kraken. Maybe things are turning around?

Gentille: The Blackhawks have improved to a 7-1 record since our last vote, which has allowed them to retake the lead in the race. The Sharks, on the other hand, have triumphed over the Flames, Kings, Rangers, and Kraken in five straight games. Perhaps things are starting to improve?

Salvian: Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, and Jake McCabe are the three players Chicago has less to sell than it did last year, but San Jose can still make a deal after the deadline, particularly if Anthony Duclair, who leads the team in goals scored, is going places.

Goldman: San Jose is the preferred choice here because of the Sharks’ deadline strategies and Connor Bedard’s return.

Who will be the biggest disappointment?

Must have been projected at 100-plus points in the preseason by Dom’s model.

Goldman: Toronto always has disappointment potential, but New Jersey is fitting considering its goaltending. Nico Daws has played well these past three games, but it’s hard to be confident in the Devils’ chances with how little consistency they’ve had in net.

Granger: The Devils are the clear answer at this point, but until the trade deadline passes, I’ll continue believing they’ll fix this by acquiring a goalie. If they don’t, the 70.6 percent who voted for New Jersey will be correct.

Gentille: I feel we should’ve been able to vote for Vitek Vanecek specifically.

Salvian: The Devils have to be the pick, if only because when we did the voting, they were the only team not currently in a playoff spot. If they get a goalie, ask me again in March. As Jack Hughes said, “When we get the saves, it’s much easier to win.”

Who’s your dark horse Cup contender?

Must have been projected as a middle-of-the-pack team in the preseason, between 85 and 100 points by Dom’s model.

Gentille: The Penguins’ train has reached its limit. And how far the Kings have fallen. Two months later, not a single vote was cast, compared to 58 percent of the vote in December. Even if they’re still holding onto a wild-card slot in the West, Los Angeles’ days of being a serious Cup contender seem so far ago.

Salvian: It’s amusing to realize that in October of last year, the Canucks received 0 votes. They are currently *checks notes* the NHL’s top-ranked team.

Who’s your surprise playoff team?

Must have been projected below 85 points in the preseason by Dom’s model.

Goldman: There really are only two answers here: St. Louis and Philadelphia. The Flyers rightfully have the majority of the votes, considering that they’re 1) in a top-three seed and 2) have been there for some time. This could look a lot different next month if (or when) management starts to sell.

Granger: I totally agree. Philadelphia deserves all the votes it got here, but I like seeing the Blues rising. Jordan Binnington is putting together a heck of a season, currently sixth in the league with 19.17 goals saved above expected. He’s actually been better than he was in 2018-19, when he backstopped the Blues to the Cup.

Gentille: I’d love to toss the Coyotes another vote here, but seven straight losses (by a combined score of 31-16) made it impossible. It was fun while it lasted.

Salvian: The first time we got asked this question, we laughed and laughed, and yet, the Flyers are still in a playoff spot. I can’t wait to see what Danny Briere does at the deadline. Do they sell what they can, stick with the plan and fall out of the playoff race? Do they add? You could argue that Jamie Drysdale is the big acquisition and that they should be somewhere in between, as a cautious seller — don’t totally tank, but don’t hold your UFAs either.

Who will be the next coach fired?

Gentille: On one hand, it seems like the wrong time to fire Don Granato. On the other, Lane Lambert was last month’s “winner,” and he got axed like 15 minutes after we published the results. So …

Salvian: I understand the votes for Sheldon Keefe. The Leafs are a good-not-great team, and that shouldn’t happen in Year 8 of this core. But can we also acknowledge that he has a worse roster to coach than last season?

Goldman: If the Devils can’t get consistent saves, maybe the return of Jack Hughes can cool down Lindy Ruff’s seat.

East playoff field

We asked each voter to pick the eight East playoff teams. Here is the percentage of the votes received by each team. (Note: * playoff team in 2022-23)

Gentille: The teams chasing them in the Metro are all disasters, but it’s still pretty fun to see the Flyers as a consensus playoff team. We’ll see how they look after the deadline, though. General manager Daniel Briere had some interesting comments this week.

Granger: Confidence in the Penguins is dwindling quickly. There may not be a more interesting situation as the trade deadline approaches than the one in Pittsburgh.

Salvian: In April, when the Penguins steal Carolina’s playoff spot, the person who picked the Canes to miss the playoffs is going to be insufferable.

West playoff field

We asked each voter to pick the eight West playoff teams. Here is the percentage of the votes received by each team. (Note: * playoff team in 2022-23)

Granger: It’s shaping up to be a fun race for the final playoff spot in the West. The Blues have come essentially out of nowhere, considering they had zero votes in January to make the playoffs. Jacob Markstrom has kept the Flames around, and the Predators and Coyotes are both within striking distance. If the Kings don’t turn things around, there could soon be two spots up for grabs.

Gentille: I’m not saying the Wild are going to make it, but it’s worth noting that they’re five points out of a wild-card spot. Not sure how, but it’s true.

Salvian: Keep an eye on Barry Trotz in Nashville. He was on the radio in Toronto saying he has no problem adding to a team that has been in and around a wild-card spot. The first summer of GM Barry was fun, and the deadline could be, too!

Goldman: Talk about a leap for the Blues. They feel like the real wild card here. There are definitely still some kinks to work out below the surface, and then there’s the question of how management is influenced by this last stretch versus the big picture.

Hart Trophy

Given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team. Voted on by the Professional Hockey Writers Association (PHWA).

Goldman:   Is it any surprise that most of us choose Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon? With Nikita Kucherov the main reason the Lightning are still in the postseason picture, he arguably deserves greater support. That player in Toronto is also on a 72-goal pace.

Granger: I think I was the only one to vote for Auston Matthews, and that is really weird to me. He’s on pace for 72 … I repeat, 72 goals. How does he not win Hart if he comes even close to that number?

Salvian: That’s why there’s a goal-scoring award.

Gentille: Anti-Toronto bias, obviously.

Rocket Richard Trophy

Given to the leading goal scorer at the end of the regular season.

Goldman: No one thinks Sam Reinhart can hit 70? This is probably the easiest trophy prediction of the bunch.

Granger: Auston Matthews is in his own universe right now.

Gentille: I really thought I was being cute with that Mikko Rantanen vote in October.

Norris Trophy

Given to the defenseman who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-around ability in the position. Voted on by the PHWA.

Granger: Quinn Hughes has been on the ice for the Canucks in every occasion this season, and they have outscored opponents by an absurd 122-52 ratio. With a goal-share ratio so close to that of no other defenseman.

Gentille: He’s also tied with Cale Makar in points per game now, too. There’s no argument against him.

Goldman: Currently, it appears that the only unanswered question is: who will finish behind Hughes and Makar on the ballot? Will Noah Dobson be the one? Bouchard, Evan? Adam Fox? Or could Gustav Forsling or Josh Morrissey eavesdrop on the discussion?

Selke Trophy

Given to the forward who demonstrates the most skill in the defensive component of the game. Voted on by the PHWA.

Goldman:Sam Reinhart has performed admirably in every circumstance and on both sides of the rink. However, he spends a significant amount of those minutes with center and well-known player Aleksander Barkov. This appears to be correct.

Granger: Even after taking the puck away from the opposition more often than any other player in the league for the countlessth time and leading the Golden Knights in scoring when Jack Eichel is out, Mark Stone is still unable to find any momentum in this situation. Though he’s a winger, he’s also arguably the NHL’s best defensive forward.

Vezina Trophy

Given to the goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at this position. Voted on by the general managers of all 32 NHL clubs.

Goldman: This is the erasing of Jacob Markstrom. Although Connor Hellebuyck is the front-runner for this honor, Markstrom had a fantastic season, so I’m shocked no one nominated him. Considering his workload to date, I would rank him in the top three over Adin Hill.

Salvian: With Markstrom in goal, the Flames will never really be rebuilding or retooling. Although he had a poor season the previous year, he has excelled this season. Having said that, there isn’t much to argue against Hellebuyck.

Granger:  Up until now, Hill’s injury has been his only shortcoming, keeping him out of action for almost two months. Despite his outstanding performance, he lags well behind the others in terms of volume. If he keeps going at this rate, is it possible for him to catch up to the others?

Gentille: It’s not. Hellebuyck can clear space on his mantle.

Jack Adams Award

Given to the coach adjudged to have contributed the most to his team’s success. Voted on by the NHL Broadcasters’ Association.

Goldman: Considering the Canucks’ ongoing success this season, Rick Tocchet is the clear favorite in this game. Easily, the order of the ballot in the spring might be in the top three.

Granger: Complete agreement here. I’m actually surprised Tocchet didn’t get more of the vote.

Gentille: Nobody believed in Tocchet ahead of the season … except me. I saw this coming for Vancouver. All of it. All of it!

Calder Trophy

Given to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the NHL. Voted on by the PHWA.

Granger: What we’ve discovered is that Connor Bedard’s non-playing is the only way the field can have the upper hand. It seems like he deserves this prize now that he’s back on the ice.

Salvian: Bedard missed almost six weeks and never relinquished the lead in rookie points and goals. It was never not his to win.

Gentille: I’m glad Brock Faber got some attention over the last month, at least.

Goldman: At least the field is pretty open for third place behind these two, since this one feels decided already.

(Top photos of Quinn Hughes and Drew Doughty: Jason Mowry / Getty Images and Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)