MLB Extension Week, Part 4: How much can the next generation of stars earn?

The hardest and last day of projections for Extension Week is here: players who have not yet been to arbitration. These are the extensions that frequently yield the highest rewards and highest danger. If you place a large wager on an up-and-coming star, you could end up with savings for ten years or send them off to a salary dump years later.

Any extension here will mix a player’s earnings in arbitration with their potential earnings on the open market, similar to what happens with players who are now in arbitration. The problem here is that since they have not begun the arbitration process, we have less sense of what they can make.

Nonetheless, there is prior history about the arbitration decisions made by other athletes. As a Super Two player, Juan Soto qualified for arbitration a year early and has earned just under $80 million in four years of arbitration. In arbitration, David Price received $43.85 million, Kris Bryant $51 million, Francisco Lindor $50.65 million, and Mookie Betts $57.5 million. We will have to assess each player’s potential earnings in arb based on their past performance, keeping in mind that most of the players in this group have had rather generous recent extensions.

We have previously examined extensions for pitchers in arbitration, position players in arbitration, and upcoming free agents.

Controlled through 2027
Last year’s projection: Eight years, $134 million

Perhaps the greatest player on this list is Rutschman. The smaller and less lucrative pool of catchers’ comps is Rutschman’s and the other catchers on this list’s dilemma. In the ARB, you saw those figures for Betts and other players. The potential is lower for catchers. Yasmani Grandal earned $16.2 million in arbitration, while J.T. Realmuto only made $18.8 million. Approximately $25 million will be awarded to Will Smith throughout his three-year term. Joe Mauer, a catcher who is physically inducted into the Hall of Fame, received almost $33 million in arbitration, which is comparable to the salary of slugger Khris Davis, whose name is not even immediately associated with the sport.

While he is not quite up to the MVP caliber of Buster Posey and Mauer (who inked a contract extension that covered all of his NBA years), Rutschman is not far behind.

Prior to agreeing to a nine-year contract agreement with the Giants in 2013, Posey was expected to get approximately $38 million in arbitration. Rutschman’s free-agent years are valued at roughly $30 million annually for four years, while his arb years are estimated to be at $36 million, placing him squarely between Mauer and Posey.

Extension projection: Eight years, $156 million

Controlled through 2027
Last year’s projection: N/A

Contreras actually posted a better WAR than Rutschman in 2023, thanks to a huge defensive improvement in his first year with Milwaukee.

The earning potential is not as high for Contreras as it is for Rutschman, the No. 1 overall choice, because projections are not as high for Contreras going forward. Let us project Contreras’ arbitration years to be roughly $28 million, which is somewhat more than Will Smith’s projected total. We will also award him the same $21 million AAV that we did for Smith on Wednesday, but for two instead of three free-agent years.

Extension projection: Six years, $70 million

Controlled through 2027
Last year’s projection: N/A

The average length of a contract extension for outfielders with four more years remaining under team control has been between five years and $25 million (Myles Straw) and five years and $35 million (Max Kepler). Let us broaden our scope for Nootbaar and sign two 2019 extensions for outfield players who are getting closer to free agency:

An early example of a team attempting to extend a deal to reduce the AAV is Aaron Hicks’ agreement with the Yankees, which valued his six free-agent years at little less than $11 million per season. The three free-agent years of Randal Gruichuk’s Toronto contract were worth roughly $13 million a season. Since Nootbaar has been more reliable in his early career output than those two, let us increase his three-year average annual value (AAV) to $16 million, which will bring his total arbitration earnings to roughly $20 million.

Extension projection: Seven years, $68 million

Controlled through 2028
Last year’s projection: Eight years, $120 million

That whole thing about catchers like Rutschman having limited comps? Yes, Henderson is not as concerned about that as he is. The 2023 Rookie of the Year from Baltimore has two massive contracts to consider as comps.

I calculated the arbitration potential of Bobby Witt Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr. to be roughly $50 million, which is less than that of Betts but about what Francisco Lindor earned during his arbitration years. In contrast, Witt’s contract valued his seven free-agent years at more over $34 million apiece, while Tatis’s valued his ten at $29 million each.

Henderson’s free-agent years begin with his age-28 campaign, just like Witt’s. Let us maintain Henderson’s arb estimate of $50 million and buy out his seven free-agent years at $32 million apiece, which puts us squarely between Tatis and Witt’s figures. That is less than Witt’s contract, which also includes player options for years eight through eleven (as well as a club option that raises the total to fourteen years and about $378 million). An early opt-out or escalators based on MVP finishes, similar to Julio Rodríguez’s Seattle contract, are two ways Baltimore might sweeten the pot.

Extension projection: 12 years, $274 million

C.J. Abrams (23)

Controlled through 2028
Last year’s projection: N/A

Unfortunately, Abrams is not on Henderson’s level. One thing works in his favor, though, is that he stands a decent possibility of becoming a Super Two player. Paul DeJong’s contract with the Cardinals provides him with a respectable comp.

When he signed the extension, DeJong had 127 days left on his service; Abrams had one year and 130 days. The Super Two cutoff has averaged roughly two years and 120 days of service over the past five years, so Abrams ought to be in the Super Two next season. It is interesting to note that when DeJong signed his contract in 2018, Abrams appeared more likely to qualify than he did. The cutoff average for the previous five years had been two years and 130 days.

Why is that significant? Between now and free agency, it gives Abrams an extra year’s pay above the minimum, and it implies that the $26 million the Cardinals guaranteed DeJong during his arbitration years is a touch low for Abrams. Instead, let us assume that Abrams made roughly $30 million in arb earnings. When Abrams’ three free-agent years are valued at roughly $22 million apiece, he is committed through 2031 and his age-31 season.

Extension projection: Eight years, $96 million

Controlled through 2028
Last year’s projection: N/A

Volpe is similar to Abrams, except he is not eligible for arbitration’s extra Super Two bite at the apple.

Instead, let us assume that he will have four free-agent years at $20 million each, and four arb years at $24 million. (The Yankees do not object if deals like this are spread out to reduce the AAV overall.)

Extension projection: Nine years, $104 million

Controlled through 2028
Last year’s projection: N/A

Greene can attempt to follow a similar plan even though he has one more year of service time as Corbin Carroll did when Carroll was extended by the Diamondbacks the previous season. Carroll’s contract estimated the worth of his free-agent years to be between $28 and $30 million, with a healthy estimate of $50 million for his arbitration years.

After Ronald Acuña Jr.’s contract renewal with Atlanta in 2019, the market has climbed above the $20 million level, which was the original worth of his free-agent years. Let us use the robust $50 million arb projection for Greene and a longer-term AAV of about $25 million, which is less than Carroll’s. Greene is one year closer to free agency than Carroll, so the total package is still higher.

Extension projection: Eight years, $125 million

Controlled through 2028
Last year’s projection: N/A

In his debut season as a twenty-one-year-old, Alvarez displayed glimpses of his superstar potential, similar to Contreras, he improved defensively and blasted a ton of home runs. If the Mets think Alvarez is close to a bigger breakout, this spring offers them an opportunity to get in early. When Keibert Ruiz signed his agreement with the Nationals last spring, he was already ahead of where he is now.

Alvarez is expected to become a free agent at the age of 27, so any free agent years that an extension buys out may be prime years. (Contraras and Rutschman will be three years older when they reach free agency.) Alvarez’s arbitration earnings are estimated to be around $26 million. His three-year free agency period will be bought out at $22 million apiece, with a club option to purchase a fourth year at a cost of $4 million.

Extension projection: Eight years, $96 million

Controlled through 2028
Last year’s projection: N/A

Casas’ best comp is a blast from Boston’s past: former Red Sox prospect Anthony Rizzo.

The way the market for extensions has grown over the past ten years is the issue. Nowadays, Rizzo’s contract would be worth roughly $54 million, but it is no longer sufficient for a player in Casas’ position.

Wil Myers’ 2017 Padres contract extension brings us one step closer, as Myers had a more impressive resume than Casas at the time. Myers signed a three-year contract worth $22 million in current currency, or around $18 million each season, as a free agency. Let us utilize it in addition to Casas’ projected $30 million in arbitration, with a club option to purchase him out for $26 million ($3 million) in 2031.

Extension projection: Seven years, $77 million

Controlled through 2028
Last year’s projection: N/A

With his contract with Atlanta in late 2022, Spencer Strider changed the landscape for pitchers with one to two years of service time. Following a spectacular rookie campaign, Atlanta signed Strider to a huge free-agent deal that guaranteed him nearly the same salary that David Price earned in his first seven major league seasons in arbitration.

Kirby is the pitcher who will surpass that deal if any pitcher with comparable service time does. Compared to Strider, he has a lengthier resume and a strong potential of becoming a Super Two player and earning arbitration early.

If Kirby enters arbitration at the same level as, say, Justin Steele and Logan Gilbert did this past year, he could be in line to earn something like $44 million before hitting free agency. To value his free-agent years, let’s reuse a comp from earlier this week with Steele and Hyun Jin Ryu:

Like with Steele, we may value Kirby’s first two free-agent years at $25 million apiece and include a club option for an additional year at $28 million with a $6 million buyout.

Extension projection: Seven years, $100 million

Controlled through 2028
Last year’s projection: N/A

Hunter Greene’s extension last spring with the Reds is instructive for Bello:

Compared to the Sox and Bello, Cincinnati found it slightly easier to accept what they saw from Greene in his rookie season because he was the second overall pick. We will use a base of six years and $48 million, with two club options at $20 million in 2030 and $24 million (buyout of $4 million) in 2031. A transaction like that might cost up to $92 million and eight years.

Extension projection: Six years, $48 million

Controlled through 2028
Last year’s projection: N/A

Bibee falls in between Strider and Greene’s extensions and Kirby and Bello.

Thus, we should provide a baseline value of $60 million and six years, with identical club options to Bello. That would come to a maximum of $104 million and eight years.

Extension projection: Six years, $60 million

(Photo of Adley Rutschman: Gerald Herbert / Associated Press)