The playoffs are only a few weeks away, and I have some good news: A few intriguing first-round matches are still up for grabs. Really, really good. There is still time for the hockey gods to yank them away from us, which makes them so good that a part of me does not even want to write about them. But let us dissect five enticing options to tempt fate.
Of course, we have to define what it means for a matchup to be “still in play.” That gets tricky, and can lead to some wishful thinking. I’m going to use the odds from Sports Club Stats, and limit us to matchups that have at least a 30 percent chance of happening heading into Thursday night’s games. That means no longshot rivalries like Rangers vs. Islanders (3 percent) or Oilers vs. Canucks (1 percent), although if one of those miracle matchups does end up happening, I want credit for manifesting it.
We will not be deviating from the quasi-real world and will enforce pairings with a minimum of 30%. Furthermore, we will refrain from reusing any team more than once, which will prevent me from going overboard and selecting every possible Maple Leafs game. Warning: There are still more excellent matchups to come from this. Let us enumerate them.
Odds of happening: 38 percent, making it the most likely matchup for both teams.
Possible plots: I realize that this seems like an odd choice. There is not much of a past or animosity to talk of. However, if you look a little closer, you might argue that these two clubs are the league’s two most fascinating season-long narratives.
Begin with Vancouver, the unstoppable force that no one anticipated. They may still take first place overall despite defying the odds and making all of their skeptics seem foolish. They are also a really entertaining group of artists. A few months back, I dubbed them the most fascinating squad in the league, and they have certainly lived up to the hype. However, the Predators are staking their own claim, having managed to turn an abandoned concert into an invincible army.
And here’s the thing: As I said on this week’s pod, everyone will think hard about picking Nashville in this matchup. We’ll have to, because hockey bylaws say you need to pick at least one wild-card underdog, and the Predators beating the Canucks feels more plausible than something like the Capitals beating the Rangers, if only because we overrate late-season momentum. When those picks come out and 75 percent of us have taken the Predators in an upset, Vancouver fans are going to flip out at the “nobody believes in us” disrespect. And they won’t be completely wrong!
Factor of rivalry: Not very significant. Only once in their playoff history have they faced off, back in 2011, when the Canucks defeated the Predators in six games en route to a heartbreaking Stanley Cup near-miss. In the event that it matters, Vancouver has prevailed in each of their three regulation meetings this season. Do those even count, though, because they were all during the Predators’ pre-U2 era?
Bottom line: Oh, plus there will be Swedish players on both teams, a matchup between two outstanding goalies, a potential generational Norris Trophy torch-passing series between Quinn Hughes and Roman Josi, and a Canadian team playing in a southern market. Even without the wrath of the fan base, this would be a ton of fun. which will once more be unmatched.
Random clip to get you fired up: Here’s Elias Pettersson scoring a hat trick back in October to ruin Ryan O’Reilly’s 1,000th game.
4. Maple Leafs vs. Bruins
The likelihood of it happening is 58%. Recall that there are two ways for us to get here: if Boston passes the Panthers and the Lightning come up to the Leafs for third place in the division, we might still have this matchup.
Possible narratives: It is just the Maple Leafs, that perennially underperforming playoff team that everyone loves to despise, going up against an Original Six opponent that everyone loves to hate and who always seems to have their number. Both teams would feel like they had to win because the Bruins defeated this Leafs core in 2018 and 2019, but they also just suffered one of the most heartbreaking playoff collapses ever.
Add a ton of star power—a 60-goal scorer on each side, the storyline of Tyler Bertuzzi’s betrayal and/or revenge, Sheldon Keefe taking on the reigning Jack Adams winner in the Playoffs, Jack Edwards fighting Joe Bowen in a parking lot somewhere, and—check rosters—a total of two outstanding NHL goalies in the series, and you have all the makings of a memorable series.
Rivalry factor: Very high. They have the two recent series, plus the 2013 debacle. If you want to go back even further, they’ve found reasons to hate each other for decades. There’s bad blood pretty much every year, including this one. (Remember when Brad Marchand sent the Leafs into their latest round of existential soul-searching a few months ago?)
In summary, as a supporter of the Maple Leafs, I must admit that I am utterly scared of this game and it hurts my stomach. I take it that makes you desire it even more? It does, of course.
A random video to get you in the mood: Thank you for asking, but I will not be using a clip from That Game. Let us go with the rather less dramatic Game 7 collapse instead, where Toronto in 2018 blew a three-period lead by conceding four goals in a row.
3. Oilers vs. Kings
Odds of happening: 78 percent, making it the most likely matchup in the league right now by a solid margin.
Possible plotlines: The two clubs would play in the first round for the third consecutive year, with the Oilers emerging victorious in 2022 and 2023. Though both were younger Kings teams that might have been content to be there, both of those series were closer than anticipated. The Oilers are facing tremendous pressure to eventually put together a Cup run in the meantime.
Rivalry factor: Extremely high considering the recent past and the abundance of animosity from the Smythe Division’s bygone era.
In summary, the NHL argues that divisional rivalries are fostered by the playoff format, which is largely unpopular. The idea behind this system is to have the same two clubs play each other three years in a row, however I am not sure that is really the case in a league with eight teams per division (as opposed to the previous five).
Now, the question would be whether the Kings are just going to play the role of the early 2000s Senators to the Oilers’ version of the Pat Quinn Maple Leafs, or whether this can become a real rivalry. This is the best Oilers team of the Connor McDavid era by far, and a loss here would be an unequivocal disaster. Meanwhile, the Kings have had an up-and-down season and haven’t won a round since their last Cup in 2014. Another first-round exit would cast real doubt on where the rebuild is headed, meaning the stakes are about as high as they get for both teams. Sign me up.
(Just, uh, no dumb replay review controversies this time, please.)
A random video to get you in the mood: This is Zach Hyman’s game-winning overtime save from Game 4 of the previous season, which proved to be the decisive game in the series.
2. Lightning vs. Panthers
Probability of occurring: 44%, using the identical two-path scenario as the Leafs/Bruins.
Possible narratives: This would mark the third playoff meeting between the two clubs in four years. The Lightning were the reigning champions the past two times it happened, and they won both series somewhat easily. However, the Panthers would start as strong favorites this time around, hoping to finally throw dirt in their bully’s face and step out from under their older brother’s constant shadow.
That is unless the Lightning aren’t quite done yet after all. They lost in the first round last year, ending a streak of three straight Eastern Conference finals wins, and it feels like the torch is being passed to teams like Florida. But the old core is still here, and with Steven Stamkos on the last year of his deal, this could be their last hurrah.
The Panthers have never been able to handle them before, so is this the year it finally happens? And who do you root for, the team that’s owned the conference for years now or the new era of easy-to-hate villains?
Rivalry factor: After being frustratingly quiet for the first several decades of these two franchises’ existence, it has been good for the past few years. And keep in mind that the Panthers destroyed the Lightning 9-2 this season.
In summary, the rivalry was already strong, but this year’s stakes and storylines have the potential to make it even better. Additionally, the addition of Matthew Tkachuk, who was not present in the previous two chapters but is expected to greatly enhance the story, may do so.
A random video to get you in the mood: Ryan Lomberg, an unlikely hero and a persistent thorn in the Lightning’s side, ends the lone postseason overtime matchup between the two teams in 2021.
Probability of occurrence: 36% overall, divided almost equally between Colorado and Dallas. Yes, by combining two teams, I am cheating here. See, the regulations do not apply because these are the Golden Knights, am I correct?
Possible narratives: Since a historic trade deadline in which they not only threw all of their chips in the middle of the table but also their gold watch and vehicle keys, the Knights have emerged as the most intriguing team in the league. Even so, they are still not even assured a postseason berth, in part because of the absence of two game-changers who ought to return by the time the playoffs roll around—that is, assuming they can even make it there: Mark Stone and Tomas Hertl. Oh, and did we also mention that they are the reigning Stanley Cup champions and the franchise that every other fan base is already tired of, too, too soon?
Meanwhile, the Stars and Avalanche have been battling the Jets for the Central Division title all year. It now feels like a two-team race, but you wonder if it’s one worth winning if the reward is facing a healthy Vegas in the first round. A Golden Knights series against the Stars or Avalanche would be the heavyweight tilt of the first round, the kind of series in which both teams are legitimate Cup favorites and you wonder if the winner will have anything left. I would like seven games of that, please.
Rivalry factor: In their lone playoff matchup, which took place in 2021, Vegas triumphed over Colorado. They have played Dallas twice in the conference finals; they prevailed in the previous meeting but fell short in 2020.
In conclusion, a meeting with Vancouver is the other option for Vegas and would be a fantastic matchup as well. There are not really any terrible choices for Vegas. However, it would be amazing to see the last two Cup winners square off in the opening round, or to see the closely contested conference finals from last year repeated.
A random video to get you in the mood: As we watch the Golden Knights from last year win the Cup, let us wrap up by discussing what the playoffs are all about.
You’re mad now, right? Good, lean into that. And then think about how great it will be when the path to a repeat starts with going through one of the best teams in the entire league.
(Photo of Vegas’ Nicolas Roy and Colorado’s Mikko Rantanen: Michael Martin / NHLI via Getty Images)
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