Dallas’ head coach expressed his gratitude and affection to the supporters.

March 25, 2024 Admin Dallas Stars 0

With three weeks to go in the regular season, let’s regroup on where we’re at in the wild-card races.

With just the Wild and Blues standing in their way, the Golden Knights currently retain the top spot in the Western race. The Kings’ position might theoretically be in jeopardy as well, but they have been holding their own lately, so we might not be far from calling this one finished.

After a two-win weekend, the Caps are still in last place as the Eastern turtle derby limps to its inevitable end. Despite a difficult 1-0 setback yesterday, the Red Wings are still in the hunt, the Islanders are starting to lose, and the Devils might have blown their last chance by falling to the Senators on Saturday. The Caps are officially tied with the Flyers for third place in the Metro in terms of points percentage, but the Flyers are just as vulnerable.

Is there anything else to contend with after those two races? Both yes and no. Over the next two weeks, let us use our additional five to dissect some of the important and irrelevant information.

Bonus five: Things to keep in mind down the stretch

5. The Presidents’ Trophy is still up for grabs. I do not think we have ever seen a race quite like this one, when eight teams might very well finish with the best record in the league. The Avalanche are putting in a lot of work, and the Panthers, Hurricanes, Stars, Jets, and Bruins—who are vying for back-to-back titles—all have a chance. The Rangers and Canucks have been leading the group for the past several weeks.

Do you really need to care? Not really, as last year’s Bruins reminded us. We have all come to the conclusion that winning the regular season is meaningless unless it is followed by a postseason run, and the majority of fans most likely have no idea who the previous five Presidents’ Trophy winners are. Nevertheless, it is a respectable feat that comes with home ice for the whole tournament. Regarding which…

4. Home ice is important, but not very important. Dom’s investigation on the question last year effectively yielded that result, and other researchers have confirmed it. In the parity era, home ice seems to mean less than ever before, but it is still far from a given. It is not entirely meaningless, though.

3. An enlarged playoff would make everything so much more enjoyable. The most popular idea to increase the number of playoff berths is to have the seven through ten seeds in each conference compete in a mini-tournament for the final two spots. The underappreciated aspect is how it would impact the teams above them, even if it obviously provides more teams a chance to make the playoffs. These days, seeding seems less significant than ever, and we wind up concentrating only on the separation between eighth and ninth position. However, there would be significant pressure points with an expanded field at the sixth seed (to avoid the play-in) and at one and two (to get a first-round matchup with a fatigued team).

Would it be worth it to have fewer teams make the playoffs than the usual 16? That is debatable, and I am aware that many of you have strong opinions to the contrary. Expanding the playoffs, however, would undoubtedly increase the significance of the stretch run for all teams, not just the bubble teams.

2. The late-season surge of your awful club does not tell you anything – I am sorry to break the news to you, but at least a friend is telling you this. You are most likely already largely indifferent if your team is awful and has been losing the entire season. You deserve to feel a little optimistic, and that can mean watching your team come in hot towards the end and possibly even defeating a couple of strong opponents. On that, you can build, right?

Not really, though. You were being overlooked by those competitors, and your squad was most likely playing against their backup goalies. All you do by finishing a bad season with a 6-and-4 record is to damage your draft position and provide your general manager with cover to do nothing in the summer. Visit Arby’s for food.

1. Late-season momentum is less significant than you may believe — We will be told often as they prepare for the opening round that inevitably, one team will advance to the playoffs after finishing 7-1-2 in the final stretch. However, a team’s performance in the closing games does not really indicate whether they will make the playoffs, especially when you take into account the fact that strong teams are more likely to finish strongly than weak ones. It is unpleasant because it ruins a good story, but late-season momentum is basically irrelevant in hockey as well as other sports.

On to this week’s rankings …

Road to the Cup

The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.

No Oilers in this week’s top five after an oh-for-Ontario weekend, but one of the most unlikely 50-goal seasons in history is now a done deal:

The fifth team is the Dallas Stars (44-19-9, +47 actual goals differential*). Am I merely frantically moving teams up and down the top five now in an effort to cover my bases in time for the postseason to begin? I am unable to affirm or refute.

4. Carolina Hurricanes (45-20-7, +55): They are ranked No. 1 in the other standings, but that was before they started kicking people and gave up six points to the Caps. However, considering how close their deadline is, I can understand it. Although I am not sure how much separates the top half-dozen teams, I will concede that this ranking might be too low for the Hurricanes.

3. Florida Panthers (46-20-5, +58) – They have been ranked #1 for the past four weeks, but after dropping four straight games against strong opposition until ending the losing streak yesterday, it is time to regress. It is almost a coin flip between the two clubs right now, so Bruins supporters will want to hear why they do not deserve this slot instead. We will let them decide who ranks where because, fortunately for us, they play each other tomorrow.

2. The Rangers from New York (47-20-4, +47) — The people who believe that Artemi Panarin ought to receive Hart love seem to be making a late push, and even though it is probably too late to put him in the running, it is fair to say he is been excellent. That is just what Peter does in this work.

1. Avalanche Colorado (46-20-5, +56) — Thanks to nine consecutive victories and a firm hold on the top spot in the Central, they are back in the top spot for the first time since mid-February. Stretching the streak required a comeback from a 4-0 deficit, however I do not think they ever truly felt defeated by the Penguins. In any case, it was good to see Jonathan Drouin show off his experience.

We have assumed throughout the season that winning the division will be important, but there is a high chance it will mean facing the Predators in the first round, so maybe that is not as simple a route as we would imagined. In any case, the Avs are on a roll right now and appear to be the team to beat.

*Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason.

Not ranked: Tampa Bay Lightning — Oh right, these guys.

For the first half, it was simple enough to forget about the Lightning, call it wishful thinking. They were not excellent, but they also were not a complete bust. Even after Andrei Vasilevskiy returned, their season was merely mediocre, despite everyone’s assumption that it did not really matter until then. They continued to hover around fake-.500 by the second week of January, appearing to be a lowly wild-card bubble team. The diagnosis was unmistakable: this was a proud and capable team, but its window was closing.

Or perhaps they were just playing tricks on us. For the past few months, the Lightning have undoubtedly had the appearance of a seasoned competitor who has chosen to step on the throttle.

They went into Boston on January 6 and were soundly defeated 7-3, dropping their record to 19-17-5. They have won against teams like the Bruins, Avs, Panthers, Knights, and Rangers throughout their 20-8-2 record since then. They also threw in that strange 9-2 setback against the Panthers, but that only served to make us cautious. They have been operating since. Brayden Point recently passed the 40-goal milestone, Nikita Kucherov is vying for the Art Ross, Vasilevskiy is enjoying his first productive month of the campaign, they recruited players at the deadline, and you can bet on Steven Stamkos doing magic in what may be his final run in Tampa. Once more, here we go.

They have not really advanced in the Eastern race all this time. Although they are now a lot safer, they are still a wild card team. In the Atlantic, they may possibly catch Toronto for third, but it does not look like it will matter. Like everyone else, Tampa will have a difficult exit from the East. However, given how things turned out, we could have said that in 2020, 2021, and 2022 as well. Try to seem astonished when the Lightning defeat the Hurricanes in five games during the conference final in late May, okay?

The bottom five

The five teams that are headed toward dead last, and the best lottery odds for Macklin Celebrini.

It all ended badly because everything does for the Penguins these days, but this was a beauty:

5. Arizona Coyotes (29-37-5, -29): With the late five-on-three last night, they had the Stars pinned, but they were unable to convert. For the second year in a row, Clayton Keller managed to score his 30th goal.

4. Blue Jackets of Columbus (23-36-12, -55) — They may have lost the season and have little left to play for, but at least they have made it to the exciting part where you can cause rival teams to have an existential crisis simply by showing up.

Aaron has more information on Rick Nash’s potential career route to an NHL head office, which may or may not include Columbus.

3. -78, Anaheim Ducks (24-43-4), — This week’s victory is noteworthy at this point. They will play twice in three nights, both in Seattle, as part of an odd double header with the Kraken this week. The western Canada excursion is part of the five-game road trip that begins today.

2. Blackhawks of Chicago (20-46-5, -99) — I swear I will not bore you with this subject every week, but in a Gold Plan universe, the team’s four-goal comeback against the Sharks on Saturday surely would have qualified for Game of the Year? Rather, Hawks supporters do not know if they should have found it enjoyable or not. Scott is riding high after a thrilling victory.

1. Sharks of San Jose (16-46-8, -126) — They have lost seven games in a row and 16 of the last 17, so they are beginning to seem like the overwhelming favorites. Does that imply that they will defeat the Stars on Monday night? Indeed, I appreciate you noticing.

Unranked: Seattle Kraken – They are struggling towards the end of a terrible season, however it is debatable how disappointing it really is. On the one hand, you would expect more progress from a squad that qualified for the playoffs and even won a round the previous season. However, they are still a young club, and there were many indications that the success of the previous season would not be easily repeated.

It is reasonable to conclude that the pessimists were correct. After surpassing all anticipations in the previous year due to their exceptionally well-rounded offensive style, which compensated for their lack of genuine star power, the Kraken now appear to be a merely average group of players who are not quite good enough to compete. Even with Joey Daccord, at the age of 27, having his breakthrough season—the first truly strong goalie campaign in the franchise’s brief history—that has remained the case. Finding a starter would have been expected to be sufficient to get them back into the postseason picture going into the season. That has not been the case in reality.

This has been particularly true lately. They have suffered eight straight losses, including one against the Habs last night. The Kraken began the season at about 30 percent in Dom’s model and never moved any higher; they have not felt like a playoff club all season, and now it is all but over. Ron Francis kind of moved Alex Wennberg by selling at the last minute. However, once Jordan Eberle re-signed, there was not exactly a bidding war for anyone else on the team. They are left to finish the string instead.

What happens next is the question. The Kraken will select players who are on the outside of the top 10, thus they are unlikely to find an excellent prospect unless they are extremely fortunate. Given Shane Wright’s continued project status and Matty Beniers’ struggles in the second season, one must ask if the team has any actual franchise-level talent.

Again, this team has previously prevailed in a playoff series against the reigning Cup champions, so it is not like the first three years have been filled with hardship. The Golden Knights have completely altered our conception of what an expansion team should look like. They have not been too bad. I simply do not know whether there is anything to be enthusiastic about about this. And as the novelty of the new squad wears off, that is not a wonderful place to be.

Fans of the Kraken, please let me know where you are right now. Is it just me or is Year 3 coming to an unimpressive end and I am being too negative?

(Top photos of Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman: Ron Chenoy and Yannick Peterhans / USA Today) 

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