“Beyond the Ice: Uncovering a Surprising Stat, Award Watch, and Rising Stars

Minus-30.

That is the goal differential for Washington after 72 games. Nevertheless, this is a squad that is actively competing for a postseason spot. The Devils vs. Sabres game on Friday night featured Washington’s postseason odds at 61 percent.

Sometimes, as long as a club makes it to the playoffs, the procedure is irrelevant. After all, the postseason is a different animal.

But this number could carry some weight.

It would not be the first or the last team to make the playoffs even if their goal differential at the end of the season was negative.

In fact, it was rather common in earlier times, albeit to lesser extents. Nothing compares to the Winnipeg Jets’ minus-77 from 1985–86. Not far behind were two other clubs from that same postseason: Vancouver was at minus-51 and Toronto was at minus-75.

The majority of teams that made it to the postseason despite being outscored during the season are from the 1970s and 1980s. But when you take into account scoring patterns, league size, and playoff variations, they are not exactly playing on the same field as the modern-day Capitals.

The ranking drops to 25 teams if we only include the salary cap era, and none of them are as close as in previous years. With a minus-24 goal difference, the 2011–12 Florida Panthers are at the top of this ranking. The Capitals might very well surpass that total, depending on how they play out the remaining games and whether they manage to make it into the postseason.

But will this hold Washington back from doing damage in the playoffs?

Few teams in today’s game stack up to the 2011-12 Panthers or today’s Capitals. The average goal differential of the 25 teams to reach the playoffs but fall in the negatives in the cap era is minus-6.

Regardless of whether the teams achieved Panther-like heights or nearly missed the cut, one thing all of them had in common was that none of them advanced past the first round. A few wild cards and exceptions exist, some of which are the result of somewhat altered playoff structures in COVID-19 years. The Montreal Canadiens experienced incredible runs in 2010 and 2021. In the Eastern Conference final, the 2020 New York Islanders and the 2017 Ottawa Senators were defeated.

The fact that Washington is getting better at this helps. Washington has a plus-2 goal difference since their playoff chances began to improve around March 7. Part of that can be attributed to Charlie Lindgren saving 10.8 goals above expectations in his last 10 games and the team’s increased ability to convert on its opportunities after previously falling 32 goals short of projections.

Washington isn’t the only team facing this hurdle. The Flyers, who are the third seed in the Metropolitan, have a minus-12 goal differential. The Islanders, who are four points behind the Capitals, are at a minus-26.

Goal disparity is not the only factor. However, in general, that is not a good sign for the postseason, particularly for a team with as much bad luck as the Islanders and Capitals have.

A 3-2-1 point system wouldn’t drastically change the standings

I was asked if a 3-2-1 system, like the PWHL, where three points are awarded for a regulation win, two for an overtime/shootout win, and one for an overtime/shootout defeat, would affect the NHL standings around the time I wrote this column last month.

Before Thursday night’s NHL games, there were a few shifts. But then the Maple Leafs’ regulation win reversed them. Heading into Friday night’s games, the playoff picture would look almost identical to what it currently does. There would only be three minor tweaks:

Colorado’s 38 regulation victories (as opposed to the Stars’ 35) would allow them to pass Dallas. According to this point system, the Kings would still be in third place in the Pacific (even though on Thursday night they really dropped to the second wild-card berth and Vegas shot up to third place). These clubs would have been tied with 119 points under a 3-2-1 point system, with the Kings having the advantage due to their additional regulation win. As of Thursday, they are actually one point behind Vegas after the Golden Knights defeated Winnipeg with two points. And Florida would overtake Boston with a bound. This system would have the greatest impact on the standings of the Bruins.

A few changes would also occur outside of the playoff scenario. The Islanders would slip a little bit more, and the Devils and Sabres would each advance in the East. Seattle and Calgary would also switch places in the West.

Just because there aren’t dramatic standing shifts doesn’t mean this system wouldn’t give a more accurate standings view. Maybe if this system was in place, there would be some tactical adjustments to push for those extra points in desperate situations (think of the Minnesota Wild pulling their goaltender in three-on-three overtime to secure their win over Nashville this month).

Josi elevates himself into awards consideration

Over the past several months, the Nashville Predators have emerged as one of the NHL’s hottest teams. Every discussion about Nashville revolves around its season-changing 9-2 loss to Dallas on February 15.

Based on Dom Luszczyszyn’s model from The Athletic, the Predators had a twenty-five percent chance of making the playoffs with that setback. They have done nothing but strengthen their position since then, going on an 18-game winning streak that ended on Thursday night.

With solid goaltending, a potent attack, and outstanding defense, it has truly been a team effort. With Gustav Nyquist and Filip Forsberg, Ryan O’Reilly is killing it. Ryan McDonagh has handled his significant workload. Roman Josi, the franchise’s mainstay, is at the center of this comeback, though.

Over Nashville’s past 19 games, Josi has helped tilt the ice in its favor with almost 60 percent of the five-on-five shot share, a plus-77 scoring chance differential, and a 65 percent expected-goals rate. The team has outscored opponents 29-12 at five-on-five over that stretch, with Josi earning a point on more than half the goals he has been on the ice for.

Josi’s all-around performance this season, not just over this stretch, should put him in the running for the Norris Trophy as one of the league’s top all-around defensemen. He also merits MVP recognition given how essential he has been to the Predators’ resurgence and their ability to be both a first-round spoiler and a playoff lock. His profile would probably be higher if there was not such a deep race for the Hart Trophy.

Hedman is heating up at the right time

Quinn Hughes, Adam Fox, and Cale Makar might be redefining what a “modern-day defenceman” is. Similar to Josi, Victor Hedman is demonstrating that his time is not yet done.

The past couple of seasons have been challenging for Hedman, as the Tampa Bay Lightning have decimated their blue line. The McDonagh trade, in particular, put a lot more on his plate. And this year, Mikhail Sergachev’s injuries have only put further strain on Tampa Bay’s defense and on Hedman.

However, Hedman’s recent improvement has been exactly what this team needed from its best defenseman in the closing minutes. Through nine games in March, his five-on-five play has been particularly noteworthy. With Hedman deployed, Tampa Bay has earned 71% of the anticipated goals share. In addition to producing a lot of excellent scoring, the Lightning have also not given up a lot, which is crucial given how patchy their goaltending has been. Hedman’s contributions to the Lightning’s ability to stifle scoring opportunities have resulted in 1.38 expected goals against 60 minutes, one of the best ratios in the league this month. The group has also outscored opponents 14–8 throughout that time.

All of that has contributed to an average Game Score of 1.96, which measures up as the sixth-best in the league in March behind Josi, Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm, Hughes and Makar.

While every team has a supporting cast, the Lightning’s chances of making the playoffs are mostly dependent on its main players. Although Hedman’s achievement is only one piece of the puzzle, this team has been lacking one.

Drouin is thriving in Colorado

Things did not go well for the Jonathan Drouin Experience in Colorado at first. For the initial part of the season, the Avalanche lost minutes while he was on the ice in five-on-five situations, and he only managed one point in his first ten games. However, in the second half, Drouin changed that. He has 46 points through 70 games, which is the second-fastest pace in his career.

Naturally, Drouin’s extensive time spent with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen—who he frequently shares the ice with in addition to Makar and Devon Toews—helps. However, it goes beyond just improving linemate quality. There are two other things to think about: In order to produce, he must also stay up with these elite players, which he has done. And 2) In this function, he must confront opponents who shut him down.

Not only is Drouin hitting his stride beneficial to Colorado’s top line, but also to the team’s supporting cast overall. That appeared to be a possible vulnerability coming into the season. The season-long absences of Valeri Nichushkin and Artturi Lehkonen only made the depth more precarious. Once again, the Avalanche are among the league’s deepest teams thanks to their return, a healthy Drouin, and additions made at the deadline that completed this forward group behind its two stars.

The Kings’ stingy play may not be enough

The Kings were served two pieces of bad news after falling 4-1 to the Oilers on Thursday. As a result of earning zero points and the Golden Knights notching two versus Winnipeg, Los Angeles slid down to the second wild-card spot. And despite shifting in the playoff picture for the moment, their most likely opponent for Round 1 is still Edmonton.

The Kings began the season as favorites, but by late December, they were falling short on defense. Their goalies faced an increased workload and their rush defense collapsed, resulting in a coaching change.

It took a little time for the Kings to rebound, but their back end has looked a lot better in March. Through 13 games at five-on-five, Los Angeles has conceded just 2.09 expected goals against per 60 minutes, good for second in the league behind Minnesota. And their goalies have responded with a collective 7.2 goals saved above expected.

Whether it will be sufficient against an Oilers club with as much firepower is the key question. Since the coaching change, the Kings’ five-on-five offense has gotten weaker, and their power play does not create enough scoring opportunities. A team can only go so far trying to contain Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl with a 1-3-1 lineup if it can not also make the Oilers play defense. That ought to be the Kings’ primary priority with ten games remaining.

Oettinger’s inconsistent season continues

On Thursday night, Dallas goalie Jake Oettinger was outstanding against the Canucks, recording his fourth-best performance of the season with 2.18 goals saved over average. But his March play had been particularly noteworthy—for all the wrong reasons—coming into that game. He had given up nearly six more goals than anticipated in his first nine games of the month. That was the fourth-worst team in the league going into Thursday night’s games, behind only Dan Vladar, Alex Lyon, and John Gibson.

It’s been an up-and-down year for Oettinger — below his usual standards. He’s far from the only high-end goalie to struggle. Even two of the best goalies in the league, Connor Hellebuyck and Jacob Markstrom, have looked more human in March.

Oettinger benefits from having a strong staff around him. Wyatt Johnston is making waves, the core is solid, and Chris Tanev has stabilized the back end. But from this point on, it will only become more difficult. Regardless of how the rankings turn out, the Stars are fighting for the top spot and will face a formidable opponent in the first round. Therefore, having Oettinger—who made a memorable playoff debut against the Flames in 2022—instead of the goalie who struggled through two rounds of play last year would be beneficial. The latter seems more plausible at current rate, but sometimes it is just a matter of timing the heat.

Maybe Thursday night’s game was the start of an upward trend.

Stars of the Month

Nathan MacKinnon’s 19-game point streak and 35-home-game point streak(!) may have come to an end on Thursday, but the forward’s outright dominant play still has been highlighted. In his past 12 games, he’s put up nine goals and 23 points. That’s a point on 77 percent of the goals scored while he has been on the ice. Technically, he may only have two game-winners over this stretch, but he’s been the difference for his team on numerous occasions. Just take Colorado’s win over Pittsburgh on March 24, when his three-point effort helped fuel a comeback after trailing 4-0.

Josi and Filip Forsberg had a close call in the second star, but this time we will focus on the Predators’ top forward. Forsberg has performed admirably during Nashville’s recovery. Specifically in March, he has accrued 22 points and scored 12 goals in 12 games. With 65 percent of the predicted goals shared in his minutes, the Predators dominate play, and a large part of that can be attributed to his ability to create offense in transition and intimidate goalies with his potent shot.

In March, a number of other players have been vying for our consideration. While Kirill Kaprizov and Artemi Panarin continue to display their star power, Nikita Kucherov and Connor McDavid are playing like MVPs. Karel Vejmelka and Lindgren have had a significant impact in goal.

Nevertheless, Jake Guentzel, who is killing it with his new team, takes home the third star of the month award. The Hurricanes have scored 12 points in 10 games and outscored opponents 19-1 in his minutes. With a plus-60 shot-attempt differential, plus-38 scoring-chance edge, and nearly 68 percent of the projected goals share in five-on-five play, he has contributed to tilting the ice. Guentzel is proving to everyone who has any doubts about him how good he is while not under Sidney Crosby’s tutelage and why he was the best player available at the deadline.

(Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, AllThreeZones, and NaturalStatTrick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.)

(Top photo of Washington’s Alex Ovechkin: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)