NHL Power Rankings: Carolina takes the top spot, plus first impressions of the new guy

March 24, 2024 Admin Dallas Stars 0

The NHL trade deadline was two weeks ago. Is that enough time to determine if a decision was terrible, wise, inconsequential, or a game-changer?

Most likely not. It is likely that a player your team signed on March 7th has only played in six or seven games. The sample size is insufficient to make any significant inferences.

But that is sufficient to justify a status update. Most teams have a new player (or two, or three) to integrate into the mix, regardless of how they got there—through trade or an AHL call-up. Although two weeks may not seem like much, there is still a limited amount of time left in the regular season. It is time to see how the new boys are doing.

And maybe next year if your team’s lineup has not really changed since the holidays, or for any other reason.

Last week: 2
Sean’s ranking: 1
Dom’s ranking: 1

Jake Guentzel

Occasionally, the largest fish ends up being a bust. He occasionally needs some time to become used to his new environment. But Jake Guentzel, the son of Power Rankings HQ, has quickly made a name for himself by proving that he is much more than just Sidney Crosby’s sidekick. In six games, he has eight points, 75% of the predicted goals, and a 6-0 scoring advantage over opponents. Haha.

Given his flair and cunning, it is not surprising that Guentzel has slotted in so well with the Hurricanes. With some deft passing moves that give the impression that the two had been playing together for years rather than just a few weeks, he has gotten along especially well with Seth Jarvis.

Last week: 3
Sean’s ranking: 2
Dom’s ranking: 2

Sean Walker

Walker’s early returns have been helpful in providing the Avs with an offensive threat on their second or third pairing. With him in the game, Colorado has outscored opponents 5-3 and effectively dominated play, and his ability to join—or lead, in this case—rushes has paid dividends on a few occasions.

On March 16, he added another goal against Edmonton, giving his game score a 5.08. Considering how the Western Conference playoff bracket might unfold, this is not a bad preview.

Last week: 4
Sean’s ranking: 4
Dom’s ranking: 4

Chris Tanev

The Stars acquired Tanev for a very obvious reason: with the playoffs quickly approaching, they wanted a right-shot defenseman to play alongside Miro Heiskanen and help bear some of the load. After seven games, Dallas has received just that. Tanev and Jani Hakanpää have started the majority of their shifts in the defensive zone and have nonetheless been successful in doing so, registering positive goal-share numbers and the team’s lowest projected goals/against per 60.

4. Edmonton Oilers, 42-21-3

Last week: 5
Sean’s ranking: 5
Dom’s ranking: 3

Adam Henrique

Henrique’s name must be somewhere on the scoresheet considering the Oilers’ seven-point performance against the Sabres on Thursday night. Nope. In his first seven games with the Oilers, Edmonton’s new third-line center has only two points, but as long as he is contributing on the floor, that is okay. Regretfully, as of Thursday’s game, he is only scoring 31% of the goals that were anticipated. Although he did show improvement in that area versus Buffalo, it is still hard to conclude he is had a significant influence. He will need to come to terms with things sooner rather than later, given the expense of acquiring him and the stakes involved this season.

Last week: 1
Sean’s ranking: 3
Dom’s ranking: 6

Vladimir Tarasenko

With two goals and an assist on the top line in his second game as a Panther, Tarasenko put on a show. Other than that, though, he has hardly been seen, managing just five shots on goal and zero points in the other five games. Even with his underlying numbers much below average, he has mostly played with Sam Reinhart and Aleksander Barkov. Given his playing style, it is difficult to think he can stay in a top-line role.

Last week: 7
Sean’s ranking: 6
Dom’s ranking: 5

Alex Wennberg 

Few forwards faced tougher competition than Wennberg did in Seattle — he was the Kraken’s go-to matchup guy. Wennberg hasn’t been tasked to do the same thing with the Rangers and yet his numbers got worse to the tune of a 38 percent expected goals rate.

That is unfortunate, but maybe Wennberg just needs more time to get used to it. When facing the Bruins, he was outstanding. If that continues, the Rangers will have a strong checking-line center who can lead them to success in the postseason.

7. Boston Bruins, 41-15-15

Last week: 6
Sean’s ranking: 7
Dom’s ranking: 7

Andrew Peeke

Boston’s acquisition of Peeke, a player who battled so much that he was unable to break into Columbus’ starting six, was by far one of the strangest deadline transactions. Columbus! Not that Boston lacked NHL-caliber defenders, either.

Peeke has suited up for four games and while his numbers look solid in a sheltered role, it’s important to mind Boston’s quality of opponents in those games. The Bruins faced Montreal, Philadelphia, and Ottawa in Peeke’s first three games — hardly worldbeaters by any means. Peeke’s first real test against a contender came on Thursday against the Rangers and he didn’t have a particularly promising effort with just 14 percent of the expected goals. That’s not ideal.

Last week: 8
Sean’s ranking: 8
Dom’s ranking: 9

Elias Lindholm

First impressions after 21 games are available for Elias Lindholm because the Canucks went out and grabbed their guy early. That is a respectable sample size to deal with, and it only makes sense to point in one direction: wow.

In theory, Lindholm appeared like a great fit for this club, and his debut performance, which saw him score two goals, seemed to support that theory. Lindholm has only scored two points in his in 13 games and six points in his last 20 since that time. If Lindholm was driving play, it could be OK, but he is not doing that either. With the Canucks, he has a pitiful projected goals rate of 47 percent, well below the team average. He makes a very bad-looking jump onto the ice. Since the trade, Lindholm’s average Game Score is just 0.27, good for 17th place on the Canucks.

Remember when this guy wanted $9 million per year? He might not get half of that at this rate.

Last week: 12
Sean’s ranking: 10
Dom’s ranking: 8

Jason Zucker

It was good to see Zucker and the Preds get together. They deserved better than to play out the string in Arizona, especially after their unexpected midseason surge put them in a wild-card spot. They needed some middle-six pop. So far, the fit has been excellent; in six games, he has scored twice and is driving play. It is okay that he was not at his best against the Panthers on Thursday night. Nashville acquired a versatile skill-set, low-risk, low-cost, and low-maintenance winger.

Last week: 10
Sean’s ranking: 9
Dom’s ranking: 10

Tyler Toffoli

With one of the top goalies in the world, the Jets boast excellent defense. They are where they are in the standings for that reason. But the offense is a different story. The team’s goals per game ranking is 17th, which is third lowest among projected playoff teams. Tyler Toffoli was precisely what Winnipeg needed, and he has done thus far. With him on the ice, the Jets outscore opponents 7-1 in five-on-five situations, and he has four goals and six points in six games. Not too awful.

Last week: 11
Sean’s ranking: 11
Dom’s ranking: 11

Joel Edmundson

Every time Edmundson steps on this ice he’s still 6’5” and 220 pounds. He’s also probably getting outshot in the process, but he’s still a massive guy while that happens! Edmundson has come completely as advertised.

All of Edmundson’s five-on-five marks are well below team average and under 50 percent so far which isn’t great. On the penalty kill his 16.4 goals against per 60 is the highest of Toronto’s regular penalty-killing defenseman. Also not great.

But again — huge guy.

Last week: 9
Sean’s ranking: 12
Dom’s ranking: 12

Noah Hanifin

With the way he played against the Kraken on Thursday, Noah Hanifin has the potential to be a monster for Vegas. In his minutes, the Golden Knights dominated, scoring 91% of the anticipated goals. For extended periods, they essentially lived in the Kraken zone and gave Seattle nothing at all during the night.

Hanifin can accomplish all of those in a demanding minute, top pairing job. It is not surprising that Vegas jumped all over the best defensemen available at the deadline because it is not an easy thing to find. Hanifin has so far demonstrated why his expensive acquisition cost was justified. The hype has been well-founded.

Last week: 14
Sean’s ranking: 13
Dom’s ranking: 13

Anthony Duclair

After the slow bleed that comes with multiple championships, Tampa Bay’s depth was in a rough spot. After the top guys, the Lightning depth chart looked really grim, which partly explains why they’re a wild card team this season. Duclair was exactly what this team needed and the move back to a contender is exactly what he needed. It’s been a perfect fit for both sides, as Duclair has looked a lot closer to the guy he was in his prime with the Panthers. In five games he’s scored four goals and six points while holding his own at five-on-five. Not bad for a third-round pick. At this rate, he’d be worth the Tanner Jeannot haul.

Last week: 13
Sean’s ranking: 14
Dom’s ranking: 14

Alex Turcotte

The Kings called up Turcotte on January 27, after he had only appeared in 12 NHL games as the fifth-round pick in 2019. He has produced almost no points in the 20 games since, two in his second game and two subsequently, although he has been a competent fourth-liner in several aspects (1.97 expected goals against per 60, second-best on the club). Notably, he is sidelined due to an upper-body ailment.

15. Philadelphia Flyers, 35-26-9

Last week: 16
Sean’s ranking: 15
Dom’s ranking: 15

Erik Johnson

GM Daniel Briere had shipped away Walker, a key component of the Flyers’ success this season, and Johnson’s addition opened up a position in a lineup for a team vying for a postseason berth. The changing area merited some attention. In reality, Johnson has played poorly; the Flyers have only managed to control a pitiful 34% of the projected goals while he has been on the ice, being outscored 5-0 in five-on-five play. However, there was a bright spot in Tuesday’s 4-3 overtime victory over Toronto.

Last week: 19
Sean’s ranking: 17
Dom’s ranking: 17

Ivan Miroshnichenko

The 2022 first-round pick has four points in eight games since being called up, including his first two NHL goals, and six good game scores. As of right now in 2022–23, he has appeared in 12 NHL games, meaning the Caps have wasted the first year of his rookie contract. It is difficult to see it happening if they were not happy.

Last week: 17
Sean’s ranking: 16
Dom’s ranking: 18

Marat Khusnutdinov

In his first four NHL games, Khusnutdinov, a 21-year-old center who had performed well in the KHL, has not seemed out of place. Additionally, he is winning faceoffs at a rate of 57%, which has been nearly impossible for the Wild to accomplish. And, see, he could be humorous!

Last week: 20
Sean’s ranking: 19
Dom’s ranking: 16

Simon Edvinsson

Although it is perhaps too soon to predict Edvinsson’s exact defensemanship, the No. 6 pick in 2021 has made some encouraging strides. He had been playing well for the AHL Grand Rapids when Detroit brought him up on March 19 for his second NHL stint of the season. A few days later, he was doing things like this.

Last week: 22
Sean’s ranking: 20
Dom’s ranking: 19

Zack Bolduc

In his second game, Bolduc, the 17th pick in 2021, scored his first goal in the NHL. Not much has happened in the 13 since; he has only three points overall and his five-on-five percentage is lower below the Blues’ averages. Earlier this week, he advanced to the first power-play unit; perhaps it will help him finish strongly.

Last week: 15
Sean’s ranking: 18
Dom’s ranking: 21

Patrick Roy

We do not need to delve too far into Roy’s work because Shayna has the details covered here. That seemed like a wonderful job twelve days ago, after the team stormed back into the playoffs with their sixth straight victory. It might be time for changes after six straight losses, five of which were by three goals or more. There was no coach that could have saved the Islanders from being who we believed they were.

Last week: 23
Sean’s ranking: 22
Dom’s ranking: 20

Jake Allen

Allen has a.945 save percentage and has saved 5.3 goals above average through four games with the Devils. Imagine for a moment that the Devils only had one good goalkeeper before their chances of making the playoffs fell below five percent. How wonderful that idea would have been.

For the Devils, it is most likely too little, too late. However, given the direction the Metro division is going, they have a chance to make the playoffs. Allen attempts them.

Last week: 24
Sean’s ranking: 23
Dom’s ranking: 22

Daniil Miromanov

Miromanov has averaged over 20 minutes per game on Calgary’s second pair, mostly alongside Mackenzie Weegar, and scored twice (on 17 shots!) in the six games since the Flames acquired him in the Noah Hanifin trade. The Flames have had roughly 55% of actual and anticipated goals when he is on the ice. So far, not awful at all.

23. Buffalo Sabres, 34-32-5

Last week: 18
Sean’s ranking: 21
Dom’s ranking: 24

Bowen Byram

In eight games with the Sabres, Byram has three goals and six points. That’s good!

He also has just 41 percent of the expected goals. That’s bad!

Byram’s crazy stat line makes him feel like a Sabre born to be. He scores, but at a price: a lot of goals are scored at both ends of the rink. Against the Oilers, he was on for five, with two for and three against. He would have been a perfect match for the squad from the previous season.

Byram’s crazy stat line makes him feel like a Sabre born to be. He scores, but at a price: a lot of goals are scored at both ends of the rink. Against the Oilers, he was on for five, with two for and three against. He would have been a perfect match for the squad from the previous season.

Last week: 25
Sean’s ranking: 25
Dom’s ranking: 23

Michael Bunting

Although Bunting will not be a major asset to the Penguins this season, he has, in some ways, lived up to the hype. He is a genuine top-nine player who gets along well with players of a higher caliber and has a propensity for scoring greasy goals. Pittsburgh has been lacking in it, so that will be helpful for their next move. He also received what may be the greatest complement Mike Sullivan has ever received a few days ago.

25. Seattle Kraken, 28-26-12

Last week: 21
Sean’s ranking: 24
Dom’s ranking: 25

Nobody

Not anytime soon, thanks to the pick package they received from the Rangers for Wennberg. The Kraken’s performance has declined since the deadline; they had lost five games in a row, were outscored 20-8, and had an anticipated goals share of roughly 40% going into their game versus Vegas on Thursday night.

26. Montreal Canadiens, 25-32-12

Last week: 27
Sean’s ranking: 27
Dom’s ranking: 26

Jacob Perreault

In four games for the Laval Rocket, the 21-year-old winger—who was acquired from Anaheim for Jan Mysak in a minor-league deal—has not scored a goal. However, earlier this week, his sister Liliane signed with PWHL Montreal. It is quite cool to see a brother-sister team playing professional hockey in the same city.

27. Ottawa Senators, 27-32-4

Last week: 26
Sean’s ranking: 26
Dom’s ranking: 28

Zack Ostapchuk

Although it is difficult to conclude that Zack Ostapchuk’s first taste of NHL hockey has been particularly noteworthy, Ottawa’s 39th pick in 2021 made his debut on March 12. With just five shots and zero points in six games, he has not left much of an impression on the scoreboard and barely receives ten minutes per night. Every night, he is also caving in at even strength. Simply put, he does not yet appear NHL-ready.

Last week: 28
Sean’s ranking: 28
Dom’s ranking: 27

Nobody

Tenants out, draft selections in. There is nothing to view here. We do, however, know what the Coyotes envision for their next arena: all they need to do is prevail in a public auction scheduled for June in order to purchase the $68.5 million site. Simple as pie.

29. Columbus Blue Jackets, 23-34-12

Last week: 29
Sean’s ranking: 29
Dom’s ranking: 29

Alex Nylander

One of the most important players is rarely acquired by a rebuilding team at the deadline, but the Blue Jackets managed to pull it off. Nylander has been one of the team’s finest players for the past month, so they really hit gold with him. His eight goals and eleven points in 13 games, along with some incredible five-on-five impacts, have him leading the Blue Jackets (and the Penguins!) in terms of Game Score during that time.

Nylander has always had skill; he has not found his fit with anyone or anywhere. With the Blue Jackets, that has altered, and the 26-year-old who was selected eighth overall in 2016 is now beginning to resemble the player who was drafted. Perhaps this is simply a fleeting hot streak. Let us hope it is more than that for the benefit of Nylander and Columbus; they both need this.

Last week: 30
Sean’s ranking: 30
Dom’s ranking: 30

Owen Zellweger

Last week, we discussed Zellweger and pointed out that his early-season performance in the AHL had not translated to the NHL, with the rookie defenseman scoring 37 points in 44 games. Though nothing has changed in that regard, he is entertaining to watch. Somehow, the Ducks are going to need him to pull it together.

Last week: 31
Sean’s ranking: 31
Dom’s ranking: 31

Lukas Reichel

Anthony Beauvillier scored a fifth-round selection for Chicago. The rest of the league was uninterested in the players they were hanging aside from that. Startling! Though Reichel only managed seven points in nine games with AHL Rockford, it is important to note that he is back with the Blackhawks. Things might certainly be going better because, prior to his demotion, he had 10 points in 50 games, an expected goals share of 35, and an actual goals share of roughly 24.

Last week: 32
Sean’s ranking: 32
Dom’s ranking: 32

David Edstrom

In his next two games with Frölunda of the Swedish Hockey League, the star of the Tomas Hertl deal has contributed a goal and an assist. He just turned 19 in February, and he is large (6 feet 3). Though his potential as a first-line player may be limited, he is expected to be a reliable NHL player. Perhaps more significantly, he is not expected to interfere with San Jose’s tanking efforts in the upcoming years.

(Top photo of Jake Guentzel: Josh Lavallee / NHLI via Getty Images)

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