NHL Trade Value Player Rankings: Connor McDavid and Cale Makar Lead the List of Top-Valued Players Ahead of the Trade Deadline.

Although it’s not always simple, it’s much simpler to conceive of this list in terms of “Would Team A trade Player X to Team B for Player Y?” Teams are always at different points in the competitive cycle, and as a result, priorities might fluctuate greatly. A lottery team and a Stanley Cup contender have distinct needs when it comes to players: a brilliant, cost-controlled prospect with a largely unproven track record, or a more expensive veteran with a far longer track record. That is the primary reason for exchanges, and the reason the exercise is valuable.

It’s also what differentiates our list from a standard “top 100.” You won’t find Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson on the list, for example, owing primarily to his substantial contract: four remaining years at a $10 million cap hit. That’s borne out by the return when San Jose traded him this summer, while eating 13 percent of the contract. Even for one of the best players in the sport, Karlsson’s age and cap hit meant the Sharks’ return was simply a protected first-round pick, defenseman Jan Rutta and the less-than-desirable contracts of Mikael Granlund and Mike Hoffman.

What to do with pending UFAs was particularly challenging, particularly in a year that saw a number of noteworthy ones. Naturally, William Nylander makes our list in the midst of an outstanding platform campaign, but it’s difficult to rate him because we know he’s headed for a big contract. When weighing a scoring winger like Jake Guentzel’s trade value against that of other veterans with more secure contracts or against some of the sport’s up-and-coming talent, how do you proceed? Furthermore, how do you handle rising talents like Owen Power, Jake Sanderson, and Luke Hughes against seasoned great defenseman like Mikhail Sergachev?

These are the types of questions we grappled with. Here’s where we landed.

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TIER 1

There is not much to tell about this tier. These are the best players in the sport, all-time contenders for trophies. Though no one is ever completely impenetrable, the majority of these players may be considered essentially so; two of them, Matthew Tkachuk and Adam Fox, had actually been moved previously, though not until the latter’s debut.

Age and contract are the two most frequent factors that set these names apart from other elite stars that were left off the list. With Auston Matthews having signed a contract extension, all players in this tier—including the 28-year-old Nathan MacKinnon—are under team control for a number of years, with the majority being tied up for the near future. Additionally, given that they are all genuine superstars, the length of each contract played a

It’s difficult to imagine what kind of return one of these players could command while committed to a long-term contract. The Flames acquired a top-four defenseman, a top-line forward, and a future first-round selection in exchange for Tkachuk, who was an RFA last summer. However, considering how difficult it is to locate components like this, the Panthers would definitely make the move again.

Biggest Debate: Adam Fox

Pronman: Fox is undoubtedly a top player. He is a genuine elite NHL defenseman who has won a Norris and is among the league’s brightest and most inventive players. It is quite uncommon for a diminutive defenseman with average foot speed to have significant success in the postseason. It may be argued that Fox’s actions are unusual for the type of player he is. However, that feature can be a significant tiebreaker when contrasting him with the league’s greats like Tim Stützle, Matthew Tkachuk, Rasmus Dahlin, and Jack Hughes.

Bultman: In my opinion, the key factor is that he won the Norris Trophy during his peak and has a contract until 2029 at a price of $9.5 million, which will only seem better as the salary ceiling climbs. Because of the positioning advantage of a defenseman over a winger, I gave him a ranking of sixth, just above of David Pastrnak and Tkachuk, despite the fact that both players are uncommon in terms of talent and flair. Though the differences are really close, I sided with the defensemen’s increased playing time, which gives them greater influence over the game, and the rarity of finding a defenseman of Fox’s caliber on the open market.

My biggest dilemma was deciding how to rank him in relation to the other young defensemen. Given Dahlin’s youth and potential, I can understand the case being made for him over Fox; nonetheless, Dahlin will eventually earn $1.5 million more per season than Fox. Is there really that much separating them? In my opinion, Miro Heiskanen is a more formidable opponent. Although Heiskanen may provide many of the same play-dictating components in a larger body and at a cheaper charge against the cap, I leaned for Fox because of his lengthier history of top offense.

TIER 2

Superstars still make up the majority of Tier 2, however they are more often stars with an asterisk in this group. Like Sidney Crosby or Victor Hedman, they might be closer to the elder end of the aging spectrum. Perhaps they are young athletes still growing into their potential, like Tage Thompson or Adam Fantilli. Although they are outstanding NHL players, they might not rank among the very best due to one or two weaknesses in their skill sets. Alternatively, they are a goalie, like Igor Shesterkin and Andrei Vasilevskiy, who play a position that is usually less valuable to teams financially than that of the best players.

These are still some of the most valuable players in the NHL. If you want to contend, and you don’t have a player in Tier 1, you better have at least one player in Tier 2.

Biggest Debate: Kirill Kaprizov

Bultman: Given his three-year mandate, Kaprizov is difficult to predict. Comparing him to Hintz, who plays the more premium position and has far more team control, was the comparison that I found most difficult. I place a great deal of value on each of those characteristics overall. Though given their similar ages, Hintz has never really challenged MVP territory in the same way that Kaprizov has, so I was unable to go past that. He is also my choice above Hedman and Josi because of the significant age difference, especially since Hedman has fewer term left..

Pronman: I think the slightly older players will be slightly more valuable than a small scoring winger, unless Kaprizov continues to score at massive numbers over the next five years. He is undoubtedly an electric player, with a ton of high-end traits between his skill, elusiveness, and compete. However, in my opinion, the players who are slightly older will still have an impact at a premium position.

TIER 3

Top-line forwards and defensemen who are close to elite status make up the majority of players in this group. Even though they might not be the best player on a winning team, they are franchise staples that would be very challenging for their teams to replace.

Age-wise, there’s a good mix of veteran top-line players whose contracts keep them there for potentially the whole contending window and recent top draft picks. It is difficult to match up elite centers like Mika Zibanejad, Dylan Larkin, and Sebastian Aho with younger defenders like Aaron Ekblad, Zach Werenski, and Matty Beniers, Mason McTavish, Hughes, Power, and Sanderson. This is because there is still a lot of projection on the latter players. But in the end, organizations have to decide between the proven and the potential when making moves.

Nevertheless, it would be uncommon (though not unheard of) to see a player in this category traded; they are too valuable to their teams’ current and future to relocate for anything less than a bounty due to their skill and contracts, or at the very least, team control.

Biggest Debate: Luke Hughes

Pronman: I’ve developed a reputation as a Luke Hughes defender, but it’s difficult for me to not see this player having a prosperous and lengthy NHL career. Given how effectively he’s played at various levels throughout his career, along with his great feet for his stature and excellent offensive skills (he’s already demonstrated PP1-level skill in the NHL), I think he has the makings of an NHL star. Since Power’s draft season, there has been a legitimate discussion between the two, and I can understand placing them side by side, but I believe Hughes has a little unique quality that warrants a slight advantage.

Bultman: Hughes, in my opinion, belongs more at the bottom than at the top of this group, at least for the time being. Given how uncommon it is to find defenseman with his level of talent and skating combination at his size, his potential has always been clear. To put him ahead of Power and Sanderson, though, I would need to see a larger sample size in the NHL. With comparable stature and skating, Sanderson in especially is already contributing a ton of offense, so I would put greater faith in him during pressure-filled situations. For me, that would cause some separation there.

TIER 4

The majority of Tier 4 players are excellent young athletes who may truly be fundamental players, but they fall short of the game’s real stars. There are legitimate stars in this category as well, but if they are legitimate stars, they are either not as influential in the NHL or are older. Although these players are vital components of an NHL club, they are not enough to keep a team competitive on their own.

Nylander, a 27-year-old who is now experiencing a meteoric rise, is among the more intriguing names on this list. He would undoubtedly be ranked higher if this were a strict top 100. However, he is still a UFA and appears to be headed for a big contract extension. This list takes that uncertainty into account: would he sign a contract if a team traded for him? And how much would it cost? notably in the absence of Pastrnak’s exceptional long-term record.

J.T. Miller is also an interesting one. He may not have even made the list before to this season, but after a turbulent start at age 30, there’s reason to think he can contribute for the foreseeable future, at least, as he signs a seven-year contract worth $8 million annually.

TIER 5

There is something for everyone at this last layer. Prodigious prospects such as Matvei Michkov could have ranked higher if not for the same outside factors that caused him to slip in the draft. Some young players won’t necessarily make or break the course of their organization, but they would still be important pieces in any lineup. Even elite wingers in their late 20s or early 30s raise the sensible concern of what will happen to them as they get older.

Unlike the names at the top of this list, it’s not that difficult to imagine anyone in this group being traded. Still, anyone in this group being traded would be considered an absolute blockbuster..

Some players who narrowly missed the cutoff, like Guentzel and Adrian Kempe, two players who have scored 40 goals apiece, Steven Stamkos, Connor Hellebuyck, and reigning Vezina winner Linus Ullmark, may be the most intriguing; others are older stars.

Even in their later years, we chose to include all-time greats Alex Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin in the list, but they only made it to the absolute bottom. The ideal balance between current production and remaining term is working in their favor. On a $6.1 million AAV, Malkin in particular is providing significant excess value, while Ovechkin also benefits from the intangible value of trying to break the all-time goals record.

And if nothing else, we can avoid being the latest top-100 list to snub Malkin.

(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic. Photos: Christopher Mast, Ethan Miller / Getty Images)