MLB Home Run Props for 5/22: Back Vlad, Harper, and Clemens for Big Hits
As the MLB season heats up, fans and bettors alike are turning their attention to home run props, hoping to cash in on some of baseball’s biggest sluggers. On May 22, three standout players present compelling cases for hitting the long ball: Bryce Harper, Kody Clemens, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Here’s a deeper dive into why these players are primed to deliver homers tonight.
#### Bryce Harper (+290 on FanDuel)
The Philadelphia Phillies are set to face the Texas Rangers at 6:40 p.m. ET, and Bryce Harper is a top pick for a home run in this matchup. Harper, known for his powerful swing and clutch performances, leads the Phillies in barrel rate at 12.9 percent. This statistic measures the frequency at which a batter hits the ball with the ideal combination of exit velocity and launch angle, making Harper a significant threat to go deep.
Rangers starter Dane Dunning has struggled this season, giving up the highest barrel rate among 125 qualified pitchers at 15.6 percent. He has also surrendered seven home runs in seven starts, a worrying trend that Harper is poised to exploit. The wind conditions at Citizens Bank Park are expected to be favorable, blowing strongly out to center field, further increasing the likelihood of a Harper home run. Despite Harper’s odds not offering the highest payout, the combination of his recent form and Dunning’s vulnerabilities make this a solid bet.
#### Kody Clemens (+700 on FanDuel)
In the same game, Kody Clemens offers an intriguing value bet for those looking to capitalize on the favorable conditions against Dunning. Priced at +700, Clemens has quietly been one of the Phillies’ most effective hitters against right-handed pitching this season. He leads the team in slugging percentage against righties, boasting a .778 mark with three home runs in just 27 at-bats.
Clemens’ ability to generate power from the bottom of the lineup makes him an under-the-radar pick. His knack for taking advantage of pitcher mistakes aligns perfectly with Dunning’s tendency to give up long balls. Pairing Harper and Clemens for a double home run prop could yield significant returns given the game’s setup.
#### Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+370 on FanDuel)
Switching over to the Toronto Blue Jays’ matchup against the Chicago White Sox at 7:07 p.m. ET, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. emerges as a key player to watch. Despite an unusually low home run count this season—just four homers—Guerrero’s underlying metrics suggest a breakout is imminent. He has a .385 slugging percentage, but his expected slugging percentage stands at .482, indicating he has been hitting the ball well without the results to show for it.
Guerrero’s current batting average of .429 over the past 15 days demonstrates he’s seeing the ball exceptionally well. However, the absence of home runs during this hot streak underscores his potential for a power surge. The White Sox pitching staff, vulnerable to giving up homers, could provide the perfect opportunity for Guerrero to get back on track and start hitting the long balls he’s been missing.
### Conclusion
Today’s MLB slate offers promising opportunities for bettors focusing on home run props. Bryce Harper, with his consistent power and favorable matchup against Dane Dunning, stands out as a reliable choice. Kody Clemens, a value pick with strong numbers against right-handed pitchers, also holds considerable potential. Lastly, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., despite his current home run drought, is due for a power resurgence given his solid contact metrics.
Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just looking for some excitement in tonight’s games, these three sluggers offer compelling cases to hit home runs. As always, betting carries risk, but the analytics and current form of Harper, Clemens, and Guerrero make them worthy of a wager. So, back Vlad, Harper, and Clemens today—you won’t be sad.
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